Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECT DATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT THUNDER NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK VORTS IN PLUME WILL HELP SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MAX HEATING AS CAP WEAKENS. ALSO TROF LINE AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD BE AN
INITIATOR OF STORMS. ALREADY SOME THUNDER FIRING ALONG TROF LINE
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK UPPER
WINDS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PULSE SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY TO SEND OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH OTHER
STORMS FIRING ON OUTFLOW AND DISSIPATING. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS
AT 60 PCT FOR WEST WITH TROF AND 20 TO 40 POP REST OF AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FROM 69 TO 76.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL PLUME AND VORTS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN DAY TO DAY HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM UPPER 90S AT GARDEN TO 102 AT MED LODGE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY-SUNDAY:

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ALL THE 12Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z-18TH AVN/UKMET AND THE 12Z-
17TH EUROPEAN. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY
DAY/NIGHT...BUT CHOSE NOT TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST EVERY
PERIOD WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY ANYWAY.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:

THE MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE WEAKENING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT SLIDING THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
THIS WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SW KS. THE AVN/MRF/UKMET BOTH WEAKEN THE RIDGE ONLY
A LITTLE AND ESTABLISH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE 12Z AVN DOES SLIDE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY MONDAY THOUGH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL OPT TO
KEEP THE ONGOING FORECAST OF HOT WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AND EXTEND THIS INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 073/101 073/101 072 403
GCK 069/098 069/098 068 403
EHA 070/100 068/100 067 604
LBL 070/100 069/100 068 403
HYS 070/100 072/100 070 403
P28 076/102 076/102 076 202

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/FINCH

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

...ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...

A WARM AIR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VERY HOT, AND
UNSTABLE AIR OVER KANSAS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE AREA WILL BE QUITE WEAK INDICATING THAT
THE MAIN DANGER WOULD BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. A LOT OF
LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STORMS AND MAY CAUSE A FIRE
PROBLEM IN DRY AREAS.

PRESENTLY THE BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SUNFLOWER ASTATE. A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU CAN VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC

JOHNSON/KRUSE