Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TSTM THREAT...MAINLY TNGT.  AVN/ETA
REALLY CLOSE WITH MAIN DETAILS AND WILL FOLLOW THOSE MODELS.

SHORT TERM...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTS STREAMING OVR ERN NEBR/SWRN
IA WITH MAIN SFC BNDRY ALNG KS BORDER NEAR BIE AT 20Z.  OTHER WEAKER
SFC BOUNDARY OVR NERN NEBR SEEMED TO BE LOSING ITS IDENTITY.  LATEST
LAPS ANLYS SHOWD OVR 5000 J/KG SBCAPE BUT CIN WAS STILL MODERATE.
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER CONTD TO MOV E TO W JUST N OF THE
BNDRY OVR SERN ZONES.  18Z MESOETA CONTD GENERAL TREND FM 12Z
ETA/AVN IN DVLPG CONVECTION ALONG SERN NEBR BNDRY THIS EVENING THEN
DROPPG IT SEWD OVERNIGHT.  CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO POINTED TO A SSE
MOVEMENT LATER TNGT.  SO WOULD EXPECT EITHER ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
BECOME MORE INTENSE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES OR OTHER
STORMS TO DVLP IN VCNTY OF FNT.  WL PRBLY GO JUST SCT TSTMS SERN
NEBR SINCE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION IS STILL IN PROGRESS.  CLOUDS
KEPT MAJORITY OF AREA FM REACHING HEAT ADVSRY CRITERIA THIS AFTN AND
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW SHOULD PUSH MOST READINGS LOW ENOUGH BELOW THE 80
HEAT INDEX TNGT.  MAV/FWC COMPROMISE LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS TNGT.

ON THU...NO BASIC CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALTHOUGH UPR RIDGE
BUILDS SLIGHTLY.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FCST FM ETA IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THIS AFTN...CIN IS FCST TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
THUS WILL DROP POPS FOR THU AFTN ALL BUT THE SE.  SERN ZONES RMN
UNDER THE HIGHER MID LVL MOISTURE BAND AND PSBL OUTFLOW FM THIS
EVENINGS CONVECTION COULD RMN THERE.  WL KEEP PREV FCST HIGHS WHICH
LOOK REASONABLE UNLESS MOCLDY SKIES REPEAT.

THU NGT/FRI...AGAIN NO BIG CHANGES TO PTN AND TEMPS EXPECTED.
GENERALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS ALONG WITH SMALL POPS.
MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER POPS NWRN ZONES FRI NGT AS WK FRONT FCST TO
APPROACH THAT AREA.
6
.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-190430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
A BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR AURORA TO LINCOLN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
OMAHA METRO AREA.  THIS IS LIKELY THE AREA WHERE NEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP.  WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABLITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE RAPID AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST.  THERE
IS A POSSIBILTY THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR...SPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE.

SMITH