Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FIRST IS
BOUNDARY SEEN ON KTWX RADAR FROM TUTTLE CREEK LAKE TO SOUTH OF
TOPEKA.  DECENT CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG.  NOT SURE IF CAP WILL ABLE TO BE BROKEN
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT.  OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS.  EXPECT A MCS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST PER
CORFIDI VECTORS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THIS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT OPPRESSIVE TO HEAT CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.  ETA 2 METER TEMPERATURES KEEP HIGHS THE 96 TO 103 RANGE
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  DEW POINTS TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEAT INDICES LOOK TO APPROACH
110F BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES IN THE LOWER
80S. WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY AS NO RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT IS EXPECTED.

MAIN SOURCE OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM MCS CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI.

PREFER THE ETA 2 METER TEMPERATURES TO THE NGM/FWC AND AVN BASED FAN
AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY REMAIN TOO COOL.

.TOP...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
       AND EAST CENTRAL KS.

58