Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 30, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2001

...FINAL FCST DISCUSSION INCLUDING SPECIFIC TEMPS/POPS...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS. SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NE CORNER OF KS TO WCEN SECTION. MODELS AGREE ON FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY MIDDAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH IT THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER.
AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY. SHOULD GET
UNORGANIZED TSRA TODAY OVER SE/SCEN KS. AS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT TO SEE MORE ORGANIZED TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CEN
SECTION THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH FCST CAPES(MESO-ETA) IN THE
2500-3500J/KG RANGE...SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS REACH THE SEVERE
LEVELS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY ROTATE.

WILL CONTINUE THE PRECIP CHCS FRI DURING THE DAY AS LITTLE OR NO CAP
EXPECTED AND FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA.
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE POPS OUT SAT
WITH MUCH LESS CAPE THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKS
OK. AVN PROGS NICE LITTLE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH AT THAT TIME.

WILL BUMP TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SCEN SECTION TOMORROW. OTHERWISE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S LOOK GOOD NEARLY EVERYWHERE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A WARMUP FOR THE LATER PORTION OF
THE FCST...WITH THE MRF TRYING TO PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN.

FCSTID = 7/NRR
ICT   66  90  64  88 /  30  30  10  10
HUT   64  88  63  88 /  30  30  10  10
EWK   65  87  63  88 /  40  30  10  10
EQA   65  88  63  88 /  40  40  10  10
WLD   67  92  65  88 /  30  40  10  10
RSL   62  87  61  86 /  30  20  10  10
GBD   64  87  61  86 /  30  20  10  10
SLN   64  85  61  86 /  40  20  10  10
MPR   64  86  61  86 /  40  20  10  10
CFV   68  89  64  88 /  30  40  10  10
CNU   66  88  63  88 /  40  30  10  10
K88   65  87  62  88 /  40  30  10  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302114-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CORRECTION FOR COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         BARTON              RUSSELL             LINCOLN
         SALINE              RICE                MCPHERSON
         ELLSWORTH           MARION

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         KINGMAN             HARPER              SUMNER
         COWLEY              HARVEY              RENO
         CHASE               SEDGWICK            BUTLER

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA          WILSON
         MONTGOMERY          ALLEN               NEOSHO
         LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM TODAY.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...SO
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE THREAT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 ARE AT GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
WICHITA AREA AFTER 6 PM.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY
LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.