Hail in Kansas, August 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

500 MB UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL POOL OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE JUST
UPSTREAM HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WITH 14C 850MB AND
UPPER 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM DDC SOUTH AND EAST. MORNING
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CREATE SURFACE TROF AXIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CAPE AND WIND PROFILES SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, WILL STILL NEED CONVERGENCE TO GET
ANYTHING GOING. WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATEST SURFACE/RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS ISSUANCE
TIME APPROACHES FOR ANY HINT OF THE TROF DEVELOPING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD POKE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY BEHIND
WEAK COLD FRONT. UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER DRYLINE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK VORT MAX
MAY CROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HELP GET ROCKIES CONVECTION GOING BY
MID AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH NO LOW
LEVEL JET TO TAP INTO I HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS
WOULD GET. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR
NOW HOWEVER. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH WARMING MID
LEVELS AND LITTLE CAPE OR BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH. WILL BEGIN THE
WARMING TREND WITH LITTLE CLOUD.

FIRST 4 PERIODS OF ZFP WILL BE CREATED WITH IFPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WILL PLAN TO KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST FAIRLY INTACT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CWA, SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS
WONT BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FROPA DURING THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST AVN
JIVES FAIRLY WELL WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF. SO, HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT CWA WILL SEE FROPA DURING MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. COOL DOWN WILL BE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR DAY 7 AND THE 8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK.
AS WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER TROF AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER HIGH FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME, TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 064/087 061/090 062 00-
GCK 062/088 060/090 060 001
EHA 060/088 060/091 060 022
LBL 063/088 061/090 062 001
HYS 064/085 060/089 061 000
P28 067/090 064/093 062 200

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/RCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
957 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    2 W BUCKLIN               KS   .75 INCH HAIL
08/23/01   FORD                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC

BURKE