Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, April 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2001

CHALLENGES REMAIN INTENSITY OF WIND AND COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
TSRAS FIRST TWO PERIODS.

MODELS VERY SIMILAR. ALL POINT TO A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN NE CO THIS PM LATE (SOMEWHAT DELAYED FROM TIMING OF
LAST MODELS RUN) WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY TO SW TO NE DISSECTING NEB
TONIGHT AND REACHES S CEN MN BY NOON SAT. ASSOCIATED ALOFT IS A 130+
JET MAX THAT MOVES NE ACROSS NW KS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES NE. ALSO A
MAJOR 50H LOW WITH COLD AIR POOL. BOTTOM LINE IS A MIXTURE OF WINTER
TYPE HIGH WIND EVENT COMBINED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSRAS. UNUSUAL HIGH RISK FOR TODAY FROM SPC FOR
ALMOST ALL MY CWA AND MOST OF KS. THAT SAYS IT ALL.

LOTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AT LEAST EARLY ON. SOUNDING SHOWS UP TO
1 INCH PW FOR GLD AREA. MAJOR VORT MAX WITH ASSOCIATED
+++UVV...TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S AND ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS
AVAIL/NECESSARY FOR STRONG STORMS WITHIN STRONG SOUTHERLY-TURNING
WESTERLY MESO/SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD. DRY LINE TO DEVELOP IN FAR EAST
COLORADO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP RAPIDLY TO NEAR ZERO BEHIND DRY LINE. WINDS
STAY HIGH/INCREASE THANKS TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROUGH/LOW.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR LINES OF TSRAS AHEAD OF AND/OR WITH DRY
LINE. BUT WITH STRONG SHEAR ABOVE TORNADOES CLEARLY ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID ON HIGHS TODAY AS DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN GREATLY UNTIL NOON OR SO. THEN WATCH OUT.

BY SAT MORNING MOST MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA. WINDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER AREA MOST OF DAY BEFORE DROPPING LATE IN DAY.
AS WINDS ARE WEST (DOWNSLOPE) WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUID HIGHS.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

SAT NIGHT WINDS DROP TO ALMOST NOTHING. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKIES THINK MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE.

HAVE NOT LOOKED MUCH AT EXTENDED. TOO MUCH NEAR TERM ONGOING.
HOWEVER DID RAISE HIGHS ON SUN A CAT AS DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGH SPRING SUN MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY. REMAINDER
EXTENDED NO CHANGE.

.GLD...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND AREAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER CWA EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT AREA
TONIGHT.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
915 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2001

...DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION TODAY...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE... AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL ALL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS WEATHER DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A NORTON
KANSAS/COLBY KANSAS/LEOTI KANSAS LINE WHERE STRONG DAMAGING
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-070600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION A DRY LINE CURRENTLY ALONG A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO COLBY
TO SOUTH OF TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO HELP INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE ALL OF THE TRI STATE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER...THE PRIMARY AREA WHERE SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
STATE LINE...INCLUDING EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LEOTI
KANSAS...COLBY...TO OBERLIN LINE.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE WEATHER FACTORS POSE A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR...EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LAMMERS