Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT FRI APR 20 2001

CHALLENGES ARE MANY WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE GREATEST OF WHICH IS THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ON SUN. WILL IT BE SOUTH OF OR OVER OR SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF CWA.

HAVE GONE WITH ETA. IT TAKE LOW SOUTH OF CWA AND PULLS CWA INTO COLD
AIR AS OF LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AND KEEPS IT THERE. AVN
LOW PLACEMENT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND KEEPS CWA IN WARM AND DRIER AIR
UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT. NGM LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD ETA. MAJOR
DIFFERENCE WRT SUN WX IF AVN IS CORRECT.

CURRENTLY LOTS OF ACTION WITH HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN WEST AND
SEVERE TSRA BOX JUST ISSUED FOR EAST. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED TSRAS
IN NW THROUGH NE OF CWA THIS EVENING. LOW IN NC CO MOVES RAPIDLY TO
NE AND MUCH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT.

SAT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA LATE IN PM AND INTO EVENING. LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN S CO LATE IN DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE LATE. DURING NIGHT LOW LEVELS COOL CONSIDERABLY
EARLY BUT LOTS OF UVV AGAIN AND MOD-HIGH POPS. SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN
IN CO AREAS.

LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SUN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS CEN KS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS OVER ALL OF CWA. POPS HIGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY OVER CWA WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN KS AND
NEB. UPPER LOW APPROACHES GLD AREA LATE SUN NIGHT FROM SW. CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO GO OVERHEAD EARLY MON MORNING. TSRAS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSNOW OBVIOUSLY POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH JUST SNOW IN
CO COUNTIES SUN NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WITH GROUND WARM WILL MELT FAST. BUT COULD EFFECT TRAVEL WX
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY DURING SUN NIGHT. MORE LATER ON THIS
POSS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN EXTENDED. MON PRECIP ENDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL
AND DRY TUES THEN WARMUP (BUT DRY) BEGINS. HAVE ADDED FRI WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRAS AS WARMUP CONTIN4UES.

.GLD...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN CO UNTIL 5 PM MDT.

RJC

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 AM MDT FRI APR 20 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
QUINTER KANSAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WARM AND WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. A STRONG CAP EXISTS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SURFACE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. DEWPOINTS EAST AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE IN THE 50S AND WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL ELEMENT THAT
WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCKHART

KSZ003-004-015-016-NEZ081-210200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT FRI APR 20 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE RED WILLOW IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND DECATUR...NORTON...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
BE ALERT AND READY TO TAKE ACTION WHEN THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

O$$

BULLER