Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, November 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2001

SFC LOW OVER SW IA WITH CDFNT EXTENDING INTO WRN IL/SE MO. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED TNGT AS LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NE.
FRONT SHD MOVE ACRS OUR CWA FM 00-06Z. LINE OF SHOWERS DVLPG IN DRY
SLOT ALONG THE FRONT ATTM WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONT AS IT MOVES
THRU CWA TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE, IF THERE WILL BE ENUF INSTABILITY
FOR DEEP CONVECTION, THOUGH, WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE, CUD
BE STRONG GUSTS EVEN WITH SHOWERS.

ONCE FRONT MOVES THRU TEMPS SHD FALL TO MID 40S TNGT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FCST BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT NE FM MO ACRS CNTRL/NRN IL TNGT
AND ACRS CWA LATE TNGT AND EARLY SUN. CLOUDS SHD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO AND FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC. ATTM, APPEARS THAT WILL OCCUR LATE ENUF IN THE DAY TO
CONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST SUN AND CLRG SUN NGT. FWC MORE
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CLEARING US OUT THAN MAV, BUT, GIVEN SHARP
CLEARING LINE ATTM ON BACK SIDE OF WRAP ARND MOISTURE, MAV CLOUD
TRENDS LOOK BETTER.

MON EXPECTED TO START OUT CLR, THEN INCRSG CLOUDINESS AS ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRES SYS MOVES NE FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPR
GRTLKS. CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS CWA MON
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. AVN CONSISTENT WITH LAST NIGHTS MRF
SUGGESTING A LOW WL DVLP OVR THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE FRONT
WED AND LIFT NE ACRS THE ERN U.S. THU AND FRI AND INTO SE CANADA ON
SAT. TRACK ATTM LOOKS FAR ENUF EAST THAT WE SHD BE ON OUTER FRINGES
OF STORM WITH LTL PRECIP, HWVR, AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND, A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS PSBL FOR NRN IN/SW MI.

.IWX...NONE.

JT