Hail in Indiana, June 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

POP CHANCES/TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...AS WELL LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
NCEP BACKUP TEST ADDING TO THE EXCITEMENT...WITH SUBSTITUTION OF
NAVY NOGAPS/AFWA MM5/FSL RUC2 FOR REGULAR SUITE OF AVN/ETA/NGM
GUIDANCE. MRF...BOTH 00Z RUN AND ENSEMBLE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION
FROM CLOSED LOW ACRS TN/KY ON MONDAY...NOW SHOWING RIDGE CENTER NOW
IN ITS PLACE. I AM NOT CERTAIN WHAT TO BELIEVE REGARDING POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE PTTN NOW IN 00Z RUN OF THE
MRF.

06Z ETA AND 12Z MM5 RUN SUGGESTED BEST COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION
WOULD BE ACRS SWRN IN AND NWRN KY...HOWEVER..MAIN CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE SWD OF OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER TO THE N. SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT 19Z
STRETCHED FROM MCLEANSBORO AND VIENNA ILLINOIS...SW TOWARD DEXTER MO.
ANTICIPATE THAT REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE S OF THIS
LINE AROUND DUSK...SO WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME MENTION IN CURRENT ZONE
PACKAGE. MOST OF THE SIGNFICANT CONVECTION IN WRN KY WAS NOTED ALONG
ON LEADING EDGE OF NARROW THETA-E RIDGE FROM LA AND AR INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL. NWRN PTN OF AMS IS SOMEWHAT CAPPED...SO WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AS PER CURRENT
FORECAST.

WILL STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT
WILL TAPER MENTION TO MORNING HOURS FOR KY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN BOLDLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
WILL SHAVE BACK MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH SUN. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A
MISTAKE...WILL DROP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY. I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF MRF/AVN FOLLOWING NCEP BACKUP
TEST.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH, KY
433 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    SALEM                     KY   .75 INCH HAIL
06/19/01   LIVINGSTON                     NUMEROUS SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY EOC.

KH

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ018-019-200200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
747 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE EVANSVILLE METRO AREA...

AT 745 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR POSEYVILLE TO
AROUND DARMSTADT. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

YOU CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY AFFECT COMMUNITIES MAINLY NORTH OF EVANSVILLE...FROM
PRINCETON TO OAKLAND CITY AND ELBERFIELD...BY 900 PM. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL.

DH

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ018-019-200230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE EVANSVILLE METRO AREA...

AT 835 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PETERSBURG AND
WINSLOW...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH FRANCIS TO NEAR
DARMSTADT. THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

YOU CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY AFFECT COMMUNITIES FROM PETERSBURG AND WINSLOW...TO
OAKLAND CITY...SOMERVILLE...AND MACKEY...BY 930 PM. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HAIL
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN SIZE.

SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SIZED HAIL IN PIKE COUNTY WITHIN
LAST HOUR

DH