Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EST WED JUL 4 2001

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN WI AND BACK INTO IA
WITH STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER IA LAST EVENING PUSHING SOUTH
THRU MO ATTM. KIWX RADAR SHOWING A FEW STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN CWA. COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS CWA TODAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TIMED WITH ITS ARRIVAL. FRONT TO ARRIVE IN NW CWA BY
18Z. WILL LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO BEFORE NOON HERE. GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN CWA WITH CAPES ABOVE
2500J/KG AND LI AROUND -5. LATEST SWODY1 ALSO HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK
SO WILL MENTION STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRONT TO BECOME MORE
E/W ORIENTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
WILL KEEP A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS EVENING IN SE CWA WITH OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE GENERALLY ON TRACK
WITH BLEND USED.

.IWX...NONE.

JAL

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-042300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1235 PM EST WED JUL 4 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
COLDWATER MICHIGAN TO GOSHEN INDIANA TO KNOX INDIANA. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER UPDATES.