Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

POPS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT EXTREME HEAT
AND HUMIDITY MUST ALSO BE DEALT WITH. DENSE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED
YET AND MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO HINDER
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.  WILL WAIT TO LAST MINUTE
TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
ANY ZONES...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE ETA/MESOETA AND AVN INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN
AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C AND PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
TAPER THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.  WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TONIGHT TO HANDLE BOTH LINGERING EVENING
CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. LATE
TONIGHT...BY 12Z...THE ETA INDICATES SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WARM ADVECTION INDICATED LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO LINGER INTO THE
MONDAY PERIOD...SO WILL POST LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE MODELS ALL BUILD THE RIDGE BACK OVER THE
AREA SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY...BUT THE 700MB TEMPERATURES STILL DO NOT
LOOK FORBIDDING.

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THE AVN INDICATES THAT A SURFACE FRONT MAY BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SEEM VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EXPERIENCED HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE THE
105 DEGREE MARK YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
TODAY AND MONDAY...AT LEAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID
70S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 80.  THEREFORE
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE BORDER-LINE...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE ADVISORY.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE ONE
EXCEPTION OF THE FWC/S UPPER 90S FOR PAH ON MONDAY.  THIS SEEMS A
BIT TOO WARM GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.  WILL
THEREFORE SIDE WITH THE COOLER...MORE REASONABLE MAV/FAN NUMBERS.

.PAH.;..HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

DRS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-221930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1112 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY AND INCLUDES SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND POSSIBLE MOST ANYWHERE IN
THE AREA.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC TROF...HEAT...AND HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO TAP THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THEREBY PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND
STRUCTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IF IT DOES OCCUR.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SLOW MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAKES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS A CONTINUED THREAT WITH ALL STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

JAP