Flood in Hawaii, February 10, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 AM HST SAT FEB 10 2001

SUMMARY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
STATE WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG ITS EAST SIDE. THE
TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED ONE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STATE NEAR 15N 160W. THIS
LOW MAY START MOVING NORTH LATER TODAY AND BRING HEAVY SHOWERS TO
THE ISLANDS MOST LIKELY TO THE WESTERN END OF THE CHAIN. IN THE
LONGER TERM ...THE MODELS SUGGEST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH RESPECT
TO THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKENDAFTER A
FEW DAYS OF TRADE LIKE WEATHER. THIS NEW CUTOFF LOW IN THE MODELS LOOKS
VERY MUCH LIKE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF US A FEW DAYS AGO THAT SET US UP FOR THE PRESENT WEATHER
SITUATION.  ROSENDAL

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......FLASH FLOOD KAUAI AND OAHU TIL 4 PM HST
.         ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAUI EASTWARD