Tropical Storm in Florida, September 13 to 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2001

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH GABRIELLE
TO OUR WEST...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ON THE NORMALLY WETTEST SIDE
OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

NHC EXPECTS GABRIELLE TO MOVE VERY SLOWY NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THE FLOOD WATCH OVER THE MAINLAND OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
EXTENDED AND IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY. DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS TOLD US
THAT THE CANALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE JUST ABOUT AT BANKFUL AND CAN
NOT HANDLE MUCH MORE RAINFALL BEFORE EXTENSIVE WILL OCCUR. THIS
FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN IN EFFECT FOR A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF
TIME AND THIS ADDITIONAL 48 HOURS MAKES THIS ONE OF THE LONGEST
FLOOD WATCHES THAT I CAN RECALL. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR WEST AND
BARELY MOVING.

WITH RAOBS THIS MORNING SHOWING VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS WITH 70S
IN THE RAIN AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

WILL KEEP RATHER HIGH POPS THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL GABRIELLE MAKES UP
HER MIND ON WHERE SHE IS GOING. BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
STORM SHOULD MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE.

WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
TONIGHT WITH ADVISORIES EXPECTED MOST AREAS FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THOSE PERIODS.

NO HEADLINES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PBI TT 073/087 074/088 076 106666
FLL TT 073/087 074/088 076 106666
MIA TT 073/087 074/088 076 106666
APT TT 072/084 074/086 075 108876

.MIA...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY.
       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SW COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-130400-

SOUTH FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH COLLIER COUNTY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVY RAINS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MIA.