Tornado and Waterspout in Florida, September 13, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

UPDATE...DUE TO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF GABRIELLE THE
MARINE FORECAST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM.

CURRENTLY...BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOCUSING IN NARROW CONVERGENT BANDS EXTENDING
ABOUT 10 MILES INLAND. THIS IS ALL MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE OR
LOCAL NORTHEASTER SITUATION THAN IT IS WITH GABRIELLE. OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS EXPECT THE SAME SEQUENCE OF EVENTS TO CONTINUE AND
OF COURSE AM CONCERNED ABOUT TRAIN ECHOING OF CELLS WITH IN THE
BANDS. WITH THAT POSSIBILITY IN MIND WILL REISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH AT
4 PM VALID THROUGH 10 PM. STILL AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE EVENING
COMMUTE FOR REASONS HIGHLITED THIS MORNING.

ANYONE REVIEWING THE NHC/TPC DISCUSSIONS ON GABRIELLE KNOWS THE
TRACK FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AND THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS. WITH THIS IN
MIND IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO CONCENTRATE ON THOSE FORECAST POINTS AND
POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. OBVIOUSLY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND WILL PLACE THE
EMPHASIS THERE. WINDS AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE
CURRENT MARINE AND ZONE PACKAGE WITH FEW TWEAKS.

PRELIM

AMG 68/83/66/78 3456
SSI 78/80/76/79 8888
JAX 69/80/69/79 8888
GNV 69/81/71/82 8888 05

.JAX...
.GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
      FLOOD WATCH FOR CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM.
.FL...SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
      FLOOD WATCH CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND
          ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM.

SANDRIK

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-132000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

...FLOOD WATCH FOR CAMDEN...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GLYNN...
NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM EDT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTH INTO COASTAL GEORGIA. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THESE RAINS ARE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY
RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT A MINIMUM...THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
WET PATTERN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INTERESTS
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO MAKE PLANS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-132000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

...FLOOD WATCH FOR CAMDEN...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GLYNN...
NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM EDT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THESE RAINS ARE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND ARE NOT
DIRECTLY RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH APALACHEE BAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LOCAL EFFECTS FROM THE STORM WILL DEPEND UPON ITS ULTIMATE TRACK.
A SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTH WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE
EFFECTS EXPERIENCED LOCALLY. AT A MINIMUM...THE CURRENT WET PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
ARE URGED TO MAKE PLANS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...
UNPAVED ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK