Wildfire in Florida, May 26, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2001

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL LEE COUNTY FROM LEHIGH ACRES TO 125 MILES WEST OF
NAPLES.  LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
FT MYERS AREA BEFORE BAND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.

W/V IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE VERY
WELL...AS IT WAS DISPLACED TOO FAR SOUTH.  L/L SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY WILL CAUSE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND RATHER
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR.  MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE TOO DRY GIVEN POOR PLACEMENT OF
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  WEDGE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PERSISTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
BETWEEN DRY AIR AND SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT MID LEVELS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES BETWEEN U/L LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL LEAVE RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA...WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN FA.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  L/L WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL TEND TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  NO HILITES.

FIRE WEATHER...WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WILL LEAD TO
MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
DADE CITY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA BB 090/0722 090/072 2121
FMY BB 089/072 089/072 4343 13

.TBW...FIRE WX WATCH SATURDAY FROM NOON UNTIL SUNSET FOR LEVY...
       CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...AND PASCO COUNTIES.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2001

...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
   TODAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
   MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

A WILDFIRE IN HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES MAY CAUSE LOCALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY.  MOTORISTS ARE
URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION THROUGH AREAS OF SMOKE. USE
OF LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS IS RECOMMENDED IN AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND WILL SPREAD INLAND.  A FEW STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.