Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

CONVECTION BEGAN EARLY EXTREME SE COAST TODAY AS GUST FRONT FROM
CUBA SPAWNED EARLY SE COAST ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED INLAND AS E COAST
SEA BREEZE ALSO ESTABLISHED EARLY WITH HELP OF GUST FRONT. FLOW
ALOFT TAKING MOST ACTIVITY AWAY FROM SE COAST.

REMNANTS ALLISON SLOWLY SPINS ALONG MID ATLC COAST BETWEEN NE GUFMEX
HIGH PRES CELL AND HIGH PRES CELL OVER ATLC OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FOR THIS PACKAGE, LEANING TOWARD AVN NEAR TERM AND MFR SOLUTION LONG
TERM AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC TO MOVE TO E OF ALLISON AS SYSTEM BEING
SHOVED SE BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. THIS
PREVENTS ALLISON MOVING E INTO ATLC AND A MOVE N ALONG MID ATLC
COAST/POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY INLAND PREFERRED BEFORE ALLISONS REMAINS
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT.

THE OVERALL EFFECT TO S FLA WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE FRI AS SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS S OF LAKE OKEE AS WELL AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
TRANSITION BEGINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN GUFMEX
AT 70H/50H RETROGRADES AND THE STEERING FLOW WINDS BACK TO NE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL EASTERLY THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
PRES BEGINS A SLOW SE MOVEMENT. THIS WIND CHANGE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE E COAST SAT AS STEERING FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM PAST FEW DAYS. ON
LATE SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SE U.S. BRINGS ALL
WINDS TO A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ON SUN. ON SAT, STRONG CONVERGENCE
WILL BE SET UP E WITH LOW LEVEL E FLOW AND WESTERLY ALOFT. MODELS
ALSO HINT AT -10C TEMPS AT 500 MB WAFFLING AROUND S FLA AND HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY SAT. ON SUN, WIND FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
WESTERLY WITH E COAST SEA BREEZE STILL EXPECTED, AND A REAL GOOD
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SET UP FOR POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN SUN.
PLANNING TO GO HIGHER SAT AND SUN ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE INTERIOR AND
E. TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE THIS TIME OF YEAR (EXCEPT FOR A COOLING
DOWNDRAFT) SO GUIDANCE OK.

IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SURFACE WINDS STAY FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 10
KNOTS AND REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT BECOMING
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO WESTERLY INTO MON. HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S. TUE AND WED AND A DOMINATE EASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS FIRE WEATHER.

MIA EE 078/090 078/090 076 1513243
PBI EE 075/091 074/090 173 1524354=

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-142000-

SOUTH FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  THESE
STORMS WHICH WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS
RECEIVING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, THEREFORE...WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TODAY AND SHOULD MONITOR THE
SITUATION. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTDOORS
THIS AFTERNOON...TRY TO LIMIT EXPOSURE IN THE SUN AND DRINK PLENTY
OF NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTMERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MIA.