Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, August 25, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2001

CURRENTLY/THIS EVENING...LATE DEVELOPING CUMULUS INDICATE THAT DEEP
MOISTURE STILL WAS LACKING.  WEAK BOUNDARY EVIDENT JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DROPPING SOUTHWARD.  MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY
HANGING UP VICINITY OF BIG BEND BUT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE COAST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS SUGGEST MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE MOS POPS...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY
JUST GO WITH 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH AWAY. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
LIGHT NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST FLOW.  MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING SOME
DRYING...ETA BEING THE MOST EMPHATIC.  THINK THAT BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT NO POP FORECAST ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT OUT
THE WEAK LOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO TRY TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT
ALLOW THIS TO OCCUR WITH MUCH VIGOR HOWEVER.  MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LOOK MARGINAL...SO EXPECT THAT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

EXTENDED...LOOKED AT A 2 RUN COMPARISON OF THE MRF AND THINGS SEEMED
RATHER SIMILAR.  ACTIVE LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT
SHORTWAVES THAT TRAVERSE THE WEST COAST RIDGE THEN DIG INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
PUSHING VERY FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
WHERE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE SOME ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVE
ASHORE OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE DAYTIME.
BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MAY CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL TREND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...NOT A LOT GOING ON RIGHT NOW OVER THE WATERS...AS THEY TOO
WERE QUITE FREE OF CLOUDS.  BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTH LEG THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS
DURING THE EVENING.  MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING OVER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY ...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN.  THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA MONDAY...THEN BUILD TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.  PROXIMITY OF THIS
RIDGE SUGGESTS 10 KNOT OR LESS FLOW.  LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL
SHOWING INCREASED SEAS SUNDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST SWELLS...WHICH THEN
DAMPEN OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAB UB 070/089 070/090 071 1112
MCO BB 071/093 071/093 073 1213
MLB UB 072/089 072/089 073 1112

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER