Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, August 21, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH WAS HELPING TO
INITIATE ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE REGION INTO EVENING.

TONIGHT/WED...CU FIELD NORTH OF THE AREA ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
DRYING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH TO GNV. FEEL POPS
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CESSATION OF SFC
HEATING. WILL TEMPER NOS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER N HALF WITH 30
OVER SOUTH IN HIGHER MOISTURE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OVER N FL
WITH DRYING TREND BY SUNRISE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AS
WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS MORE RAPIDLY
ADVERTISED BY ETA. AVN NOT AS QUICK TO DRY OUT AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH DURING WED AND WITH THESE DISCREPANCIES NOTED WILL
KEEP POPS IN LOW SCT CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH DRY ADVECTION IN NE FLOW.
CHICKEN POPS AT BEST OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THU/FRI...AIRMASS MOISTURE RECOVERY IS LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOWER UNTIL PWATS RISE WITH
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. MIXED SIGNALS WRT TO FALLING
HEIGHTS OFF THE FL EAST COAST MAY HELP POP NOS TO RISE TO HIGHER
CATEGORIES SHOULD TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF BAHAMAS SHOW CLOSER
INFLUENCE BY THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPRESSED OVER THE BAHAMAS TO FL
STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL SE.
FAVORABLE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM
COVERAGE....ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION.

MARINE...NO GRADIENT WIND SURGES SEEN IN IMMEDIATE FUTURE BEYOND
LOCAL SQUALLS IN VICINITY OF STORMS MOVING OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 072/089 072/089 072 3212
MCO BB 074/092 073/092 073 3212
MLB BB 075/089 074/089 075 3322 44

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
212000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS AREAS FROM
INTERSTATE FOUR SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. CONSULT BEACH PATROL OR
LIFEGUARD STATION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

PENDERGRAST