Hail in Colorado, September 17, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
255 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2001

...MAIN CONCERNS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WITH
80+ ULJ MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER.
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH...HAVE BROUGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PLAINS...TAPPING INTO RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...0-6KM SHEARS OF
40 TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN
THREAT.

UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TAKING HOLD AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD SEE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE COOL TEMPS IN WEAK CAA...
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE SEASONABLE WEATHER
RETURNING AREA WIDE WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING IN WEAK ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. AVN/MRF CONTINUES TRENDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BEING PROGGED...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS MOUNTAINS IN CURRENT
ZONES...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN QUESTION.

IN THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A FEW MINOR...HARD TO TIME
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE A
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE SURGE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. AGAIN LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF AREA
AND WILL WAIT A FORM MORE RUNS TO SEE HOW IT PANS OUT. SO...WILL
KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY ALL AREAS...WITH RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY.

PUB...NONE.

MW

COZ058>081-171845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT MON SEP 17 2001

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
TODAY...

SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LINE...FROM COLORADO SPRINGS TO PUEBLO TO SPRINGFIELD...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

DUE TO MODERATE DYNAMICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST OVER
THE REGION...A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS
AND SURFACE WEATHER BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM THIS
EVENING.

A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WESTERLY FLOW OF 50 TO 60 MPH AT
UPPER LEVELS...AND THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...ABOVE 10000 FEET.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
LATER UPDATES.