High Wind in Colorado, March 15, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED HEADLINE SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 PM MST WED MAR 14 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...A LEE LOW OVER SE CO...AND A CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND THROUGH WY.

MODEL INITIALIZATION... THE NGM AND ETA WERE BOTH TOO COOL AT H85
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX INTO SD. ALL MODELS HAD SLIGHT PROBLEMS
IN DIFFERENT AREAS AT H7. THE ETA WAS INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE
SYSTEM IN MT...WITH THE NGM AND AVN BEING TOO SHALLOW WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE NGM IS HANDLING MOISTURE THE BEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REALITY.

TONIGHT... FRONT HAS HAD NO PROBLEM PROGRESSING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
AND RACED RIGHT OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER SE
CO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTH. FROPA WAS AT GLD AT 21Z. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OF MOISTURE TO MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE REGION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOWARDS
CENTRAL NE/KS. WITH HIGHER DPS IN THE EAST AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. SNOW
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING WHEN DVV ENTERS INTO THE
REGION...TRANSLATING H8 WINDS OF 50KTS TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. WILL GO WITH 1-3 IN
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND LESS THAN 2 IN THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES WEST. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER ALL OF THE
REGION...AND WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE EAST WHERE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A COMPOUNDING PROBLEM.

RIDGING ENTERS REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND REMAINING SNOW COVER
WILL DISAPPEAR QUICKLY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO CREATE CLOUD COVER...AND WITH SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
WILL GO TOWARD THE COOLER MAV FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED... MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHEN
COMPARED TO THE MRF AND THE LATEST AVN. THE LATEST AVN IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE H5 LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE AVN
PROGGED JET WINDS DIGGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IN EXCESS OF 140KTS.
FEEL THAT WITH THESE WINDS DIGGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A DEEPER AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR
THIS TRACK. WILL LEAVE WORDING FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY HOWEVER AS CONFIDENCE FOR THESE PERIODS IS VERY LOW.

.GLD...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL CWA THAT INCLUDES EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE LINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SVEN