Flood, Adair
- When
- March 15, 3:00 PM CST to March 16, 9:00 PM CST
- Where
- Adair forecast zone
- Property damage
- $5,000
- Reported by
- OFFICIAL NWS OBS.
- Coordinates
- 41.331, -94.471 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The first 10 days of March were essentially dry and cool across the Des Moines HSA. There was some melting of the impressive snowpack still in place across the northern two thirds of Iowa, but not enough to prevent a record duration snow cover (one inch or more) to be established at Des Moines.
Every event with a place to put it; 29 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
The first 10 days of March were essentially dry and cool across the Des Moines HSA. There was some melting of the impressive snowpack still in place across the northern two thirds of Iowa, but not enough to prevent a record duration snow cover (one inch or more) to be established at Des Moines. A new record of 99 days was reached by the 19th of the month. Over parts of northwest Iowa, new records for the state were set with duration in excess of 140 days. A major precipitation event that affected the southern half of the HSA took place on the 15th as heavy rain was followed by heavy snow. County-wide flood warnings were issued for Wapello and Monroe Counties as heavy rain caused numerous streams and creeks to go out of their banks. The Ottumwa ASOS picked up nearly 5 inches of rain over the course of the event, with 8.8 inches of snow at the end. Albia, in Monroe County, had a 2-day total of 4.17 inches of precipitation, with 10 inches of new snow on the ground by the morning of the 16th. The northern edge of the precipitation shield was just north of Des Moines, with the heaviest amounts of rain falling over areas that had already lost most if now all their snow cover. This was extremely fortunate for future flooding prospects, as very little rain or snow added to the heavy snowpack to the north of Des Moines. The NWS office in Johnston added another 5.2 inches of snow, bringing the seasonal total to 49.3 inches. Flood statements for rivers in south central and central Iowa were issued due to the combination of rain, snowmelt, and ice jams. There was minor flooding within the Chariton, Iowa, Raccoon, and Des Moines River Basins.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 2:49 PM CST, 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
249 PM CST THU MAR 15 2001
SYS BEGINNING TO SHOW ITS HAND TDA BUT DURATION...CHG TO SNW...AND
AMTS WL CONT TO BE FCST PROBLEMS. SHARP GRADIENT ON NWRN EDGE WL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. STLT IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOW UPR
LOW ACRS ERN KS/OK BORDER WITH SHRT WV IN BASE OF TROF AND ANOTHER
OUT AHD OF IT MOVG ACRS MO. SYS NRLY VERTICALLY STACKED ATTM. 18Z
SFC ANLYS PLACES LOW IN SAME LOCATION WITH WRMFNT EXTENDING ACRS ERN
MO AND INVERTED TROF BTWN KCDJ AND KIRK. PRES FALL CNTR MAINLY OVR
SRN MO...BUT THERE IS A SCNDRY AXIS ASSOCD WITH INVERTED TROF. THIS
IS LIKELY REASON WHY BACK EDGE OF PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHG TO SNW
WITH WRM ADVCTN UNDERWAY FOR TIME BEING. WL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO PASS BEFORE WE REALLY CHG PCPN TYPE. 12Z ETA AND 18Z RUC
SUGGEST RPD PCPN CHG ACRS ENTIRE FA BY EARLY THIS EVEN WHICH LOOKS
GOOD ONCE MO SHRT WV AND ASSOCD TROF BEGIN PULLING AWAY. VSBYS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO GO DOWN IN SVRL SITES.
MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...SPCLLY SINCE 00Z RUN. THEY ALL POINT TWRD PROLONGED
PCPN EVENT FOR SERN THIRD OF FA LASTING WELL INTO FRI. H85/H7
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND QN RESPONSE ALG WITH THETA-E ADVCTN
ALREADY STG IN DEFORMATION ZN ACRS SERN FA. TOTAL QG FORCING THEN
INCRS THIS EVEN LASTING THRU FRI. SHRT WV DROPPING THRU DAKOTAS
THIS EVEN SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN PCPN INTO FRI WITH DIFFERENTIAL PVA
INCRG ALG SHEAR AXIS. MDL OMEGA REFLECTS THIS UVM WELL.
AMTS WL BE TOUGH CALL WITH QPF SUGGESTING 5 TO 8 INCHES OVR SERN
FA...AND GARCIA METHOD ARND 6 IN 12 HR PD. BACK EDGE WL CERTAINLY
BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH GRADIENT FM A DUSTING TO NR 6 INCHES JUST
ACRS A COUNTY OR TWO. WL GO 2 TO 5 INCH AMTS AND WINTER WX ADVY ALG
KCSQ-KDSM-KMIW LN AND AM CONCEEDING A BUST SOMEWHERE IN THAT VCNTY
DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT...POSSIBLY ON EITHER END OF THOSE AMTS. WL
UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WRNG IN HIGHER AMT AREA. WL ONLY GO AN INCH
OR LESS JUST NW OF ADVY. SNW ALREADY STICKING ON GRASS HERE AND
ROAD SFC TEMPS SHOULD FALL RPDLY AFT SS WHEN SNW SHOULD BEGIN
STICKING. WNDS NOT QUITE AS STG AS XPCD YDA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TNGT FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNW.
NIL WX XPCD SAT AND SAT NGT AFT STORM. AVN MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
DOING WELL RECENTLY AND CANNOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH.
COORDINATION W/EAX...DVN AND OAX.
IN EXTENDED...MDLS STILL WANT TO BRING LG WV TROF THRU CNTRL CONUS
SUN INTO MON BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...SPCLLY MRF WHICH IS NOW FASTER.
EURO MDLS...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MDLS ALL SLOWER WHICH MRF ENSEMBLE
HINTS AT AS WELL. 12Z AVN SLOWER THAN MRF AND SOMEWHERE IN BTWN.
MRF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY POOR WITH BIG CHG FM 14/00Z SO WL LEAN
TWRD SLOWER SOLUTIONS. PCPN CHCS DO NOT LOOK TOO GOOD BASED ON
CANADIAN MDL QPF...BUT WL LEAVE IN FAR SRN ZNS FOR CONTINUITIES SAKE
EVEN THOUGH MRF NOW DEPICTS WEAK QG FORCING ACRS ENTIRE STATE.
FOR END OF PD...SHRT WV EJECTING FM CURRENT ALEUTIAN LOW DROPS INTO
NRN PLAINS MIDWEEK WITH MRF AGN FASTEST. MRF ENSEMBLE PCPN PROBS
SUGGEST ADDING POPS TUE THRU THU WITH BETTER NUMBERS ON TUE MUCH
LIKE MRF H85/H5 QG FORCING AND RH REFLECTS. WL GO WITH POPS TUE NGT
AND WED ACCTG FOR SLOWER SOLUTION. PARTIAL THICKNESSES POINT TWRD
RAIN OR SNW N...AND RAIN CNTRL AND S. CANNOT SEE MUCH REASON TO
DEVIATE FM MRF MOS TEMPS.
.KDSM...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT AND FRI SERN THIRD OF FA
IAZ062-073>075-083>086-093>097
WINTER WX ADVY TNGT AND FRI GENERALLY ALG KCSQ-KDSM-KMIW LN
IA049-050-059>061-071-072-081-082-092
SMALLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
29 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2001Every state in 2001This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, March 2001
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5233701, 5233702, 5233703, 5233704, 5233705, 5233706, 5233707, 5233708, 5233709, 5233710, 5233711, 5233712, 5233713, 5233714, 5233715, 5233716, 5233717, 5233718, 5233719, 5233720, 5233721, 5233722, 5233723, 5233724, 5233725, 5233726, 5233727, 5233728, 5233729.