Hail in Colorado, June 3, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: COOL MOIST AIRMASS UP AGAINST FRONT RANGE
MTNS NOW FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRN NERN CO AT LEAST THRU TUES.
COLD UPR TROF HANGING BACK OVR NRN ROCKIES/COLUMBIA RVR BASIN
LOOKING COLDER...DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN WAS PROGD ON PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.  BLOCKING RIDGES ON WEST AND EAST COASTS KEEPS H5 LOW/TROF OVR
NRN/CNTRL RCKY MTN REGION THRU TUE BEFORE IT SUPPOSEDLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NEWRD UP INTO MANITOBA BY MID-WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW MID/UPR
LVL FLOW TO GO ZONAL WHICH SHOULD FLUSH OUT COLD MOIST AIR ON THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  IN THE MEANTIME SHOULD SEE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ERODE NEWRD REST OF THIS AFTN AS DRY SWLY FLOW MIXES DOWN OFF THE
FTHLS AND MONUMENT RIDGE. ETA/MM5 MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOKING
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO SHEAR AND BNDRY LYR CAPE. RIGHT NOW
BELIEVE WE/LL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE MONUMENT RIDGE BEFORE
EXPANDING INTO AREAS EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DEN
METRO AREA.  SPC HAS THIS AREA ON THE EDGE OF A MODERATE RISK FOR
SVR NEXT 12 HRS.  EVEN WITH SLOW WARMING AND CLEARING TODAY BELIEVE
WE WILL STILL SEE SOME STORMS GO SVR INTHIS AREA AS QG LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. SO WILL KP CHANCE OF
SVR IN FIRST PERIOD FOR ZNS E AND SE OF DEN METRO AREA.  ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTN/EVENING T-STORMS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD BET IN THE MTNS...
FTHLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT CHANCES ARE THEY WILL NOT GO SVR...
PARTICULARLY THOSE DRIFTING OFF THE FTHLS AND INTO HIGH CIN AIR.
HWVR...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MODELS THEN SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL MOIST AIR PUSHING UP
AGAINST FTHLS BTWN 06Z-09Z.  CLOUD CONDENSATE AND RH MM5 GRIDS SHOW
LOW CIGS AND FOG REFORMING ACRS NERN PLAINS AFT STORMS END ARND
MIDNIGHT.  ON MON...COOL MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES WITH SFC TROF UP
AGAINST FTHLS.  SEE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS WITH MOS GUIDANCE GIVING MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH MON
AND TUE ON THE PLAINS.  COULD ALSO SEE AROUND OF SHWRS AND T-STORMS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF JET ENERGY PASSING OVR AREA DURING AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE TUE DO MODELS SHOW SFC/H7 TEMPS WARMING AGAIN.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  MEDIUM MODELS NOW DELAYING BIG WARMUP UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVG OVR THE RCKY MTN RGN
BY LATE THU AND FRI.  BASED ON SLOW PROGRESS OF UPR LVL TROF NOW OVR
RGN...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.  SO WILL START WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY BUT
NOT UNTIL FRI AND SAT MIGHT WE SEE OUR WARMEST READINGS. EVEN WITH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVG OVR CWFA LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL KP SLGT CHC OF
AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND T-STORMS IN THE MTNS ALREADY IN FCST.  BAKER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-032100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...A SURGE OF SHALLOW...COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
WILL PREVENT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS FROM DISSIPATING UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON THUS DELAYING THE HEATING NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

A BOUNDARY WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH GREELEY TO AROUND
LIMON.  TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE THE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CAPPED.  TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ADEQUATE SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.  BY MID EVENING THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AGAIN IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES BACK AGAINST THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS.  THIS SHOULD HINDER THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVVIDE BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

GARD...WFO BOULDER