Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, June 29, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2001

ANOTHER HOT FEW DAYS COMING UP FOR THE REGION WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOING ITS SUMMERTIME SUPRESSION TO THE MOUNTAIN WEST.
CORE OF JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WELL NORTH OF STATE
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE EXT PDS.  THIS KEEPS SIG SYNOPTIC LIFT
OUT OF AREA.  A SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
WYO/NE IS STARTING TO FIRE A LINE OF SEV CONVECTION ON ERN ZONES.
BASED ON SFC OBS...NO SIG COOLING OR STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS SURGE
AS WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN BEHIND IT.  WITH NUMEROUS
SFC BOUNDARIES FLYING AROUND WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS GOING INTO EARLY EVE.  MESO-ETA STILL HAS WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING TOP OF RIDGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT IN MONTANA.  THIS
APPERANTLY PRODUCES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM THIS DISTURB OVER NRN
PLAINS OF SD AND NE AND THEN SENDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHIFT
ALONG WITH HIGHER SFC DEW PTS INTO ERN COLO LATE SATURDAY.  WITH THE
SUPRESSING RIDGE ALOFT STILL HOLDING STRONG THROUGH THIS SAT PD WILL
ONLY GO WITH ISOLTED COVERAGE IN CWA AND CARRY THIS THOUGH INTO
SUNDAY.  AVN AND MESO-ETA PUSH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EAST TO THE
COLO-KAN BORDER WITH BENIGN SFC FLOW OVR CWA...SO WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR ERN ZONES SUN.  ONCE AGAIN MOS GUIDANCE TOO HOT FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVR THE STATE INTO
THE EXTENDED PD.

EXTENDED PD MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN A DAY WITH
RESPECT TO NEXT WEEKS FCST.  USING THE AVN...ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE
ENTERS CWA LATE MONDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER RHS EXPECTED.
RHS VALUES IN THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB LAYERS INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH EXTENDED.  WILL KEEP WATCHFUL OF
THIS INCASE IT DOES MEAN MORE OF AN ONSET TO THE MONSOON MOISTURE
FOR NEXT WEEK.  IF THE MRF IS CORRECT...A HEALTHY COOL FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE WED INTO THUR WITH TEMPS TEMPS ONLY RACHING THE
MID 70S.  HENCE...A CHANCE FOR TSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
INLINE.     FREDIN

DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-292000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1010 AM MDT FRI JUN 29 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A BURGEONING MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS FOUND A HOME OVER
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.  THEREFORE...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
YESTERDAY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  SINCE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF WIND
AND LIGHTNING...BUT LITTLE RAIN.  A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
FRONT lRANGE TOWARD EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE AT SURVIVAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COZ030>051-292000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1235 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM WYOMING DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND MORGAN COUNTY COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND ONE INCH-DIAMETER HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY STRONG WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.