Damaging Wind in Colorado, August 15, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2001

GOOD OLD NW TO N FLOW ALOFT OFTEN YIELDS SOME INTERESTING WX AND
TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION AS WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN AND
NEAR THE FTHLS.  NO OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURE ALOFT THIS AFTN AND IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET TOO MUCH GOING ON THE PLAINS WITH DWPNTS
RATHER LO ALTHO APPEARS HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO MAY NEED
SOMETHING OUT THERE THIS EVNG.  THERE IS AN UPSTREAM S/W THAT HAS
BEEN TRACKING ACRS ID TDY AND TIMING WUD HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING
ACRS FCST AREA LATER TNGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE AT THE SFC FM
THE N.  LATEST 18Z RUNS SEEM TO BACK OFF SOME FOR THE AMNT OF PCPN
THAT HAD BEEN PREDICTED FOR OVNGHT PERIOD.  WILL PROB STICK WITH THE
CRNT FCST WCH HAS LOTS OF CLDS AND AT LEAST SCT ACTVTY FOR
TNGT...QSTN WILL BE WHEN/IF IT WILL END OVNGT OR WILL IT CONT THRU
MOST OF THE NGT LIKE LAST NGTS ACTIVITY NEAR THE FTHLS.  FOR THU
ANOTHER DAY OF NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK FORCING INDC ALOFT...A BIG
QSTN IS HOW MUCH CLDNS WILL BE ARND TO START THE DAY.  ANSWER TO
THESE QSTNS DEPENDS ON AMNT OF FORCING WITH THE ID S/W WCH IS BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  FRIDAY FINDS MORE NNW FLOW ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREA TO GET BRUSHED BY SW EXTENSION OF THE NEW TROF
MOVING S FM CAN BY AFTN/EVNG SO SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE AGAIN.  THE
ASSOC SFC HI MAY WELL SNEAK INTO THE AREA WITH THIS TROF PASSAGE BUT
AS NOTED BELOW EXPECT THE MAIN HI PRES WILL BE FARTHER E.

IN THE LONGER RANGE (WEEKEND AND BEYOND) THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH AVN AND MRF CONTINUING THE TREND OF HAVING THE NEXT
WAVE MOVING S OUT OF CAN LATE THU/FRI DIG FARTHER W THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...BUT EVEN AT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SFC HI SHD RMN E OF EVEN
THE FAR ERN PLAINS SO THE WARMUP STILL ON TRACK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS E ACRS THE SWRN STATES.  MDLS THO KEEP HANGING ONTO SOME MSTR
IN THE MTNS AT LEAST INTO MON...EVEN THE OFTEN DRY CANADIAN
MODEL...ALL AS WE SLOWLY UNDERGO THE TRANSITION FROM NWLY TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT.  THE 12Z AVN IS DRIER WITH PCPN BUT HAS ENUF RH TO MATCH
THE MRF.  BOTTOM LINE THEN IS THAT A TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT
WORK OUT ESPCLY FOR THE MTNS AND IN AND NEAR THE FTHLS...BUT
PROB OKAY FOR THE PLAINS.  AFTER MON AS THE RIDGE CONTS TO DRIFT E
THE FLOW TURNS MORE SWLY ALOFT AND THE MONSOON SOURCE OPENS
UP...WITH THE MRF BCMNG QUITE MOIST BY WED AS THE SWLY FLOW INCRS IN
ASSOC WITH A NEW UPR TROF MOVING TWDS THE WEST COAST.  SZOKE

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-152000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1111 AM MDT WED AUG 15 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE HAS DRIED A
BIT FROM YESTERDAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AT THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ALOFT.
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS A STILL QUITE A WAYS
UPSTREAM JUST NOW AFFECTING WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH.  THIS
IS EXPECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE AVAILABLE ENERGY TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LACKING.  SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 1 PM...OUT ON THE PLAINS AFTER 4
PM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

RJK

COZ030>051-152000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1151 AM MDT WED AUG 15 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE HAS DRIED A
BIT FROM YESTERDAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AT THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ALOFT.
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS A STILL QUITE A WAYS
UPSTREAM JUST NOW AFFECTING WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH.  THIS
IS EXPECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE AVAILABLE ENERGY TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LACKING.  SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 12 NOON AND OUT ON THE PLAINS AFTER 3 PM.
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

RJK