Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 15, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2001

A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY GOING UP NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST.  AS THE
ASSOCIATED FEATURES DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT... WE EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT IN THAT DIRECTION ALSO.  THE BEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE THERE.
FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT... POPS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE ESTIMATE OF AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE FRONT AND UPPER FEATURES LOSE THEIR INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BY NOON TOMORROW... BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH.  THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH THEN.  THE NEW AVN SUPPORTS THE
MRF SOLUTION OF RESTORING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK... AND THE ECMWF IS NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT.  THIS SUGGESTS
THAT WE CAN SAFELY REMOVE POPS FROM THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR - OR SLIGHTLY BELOW - NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THEN SHOULD TOAST UP A BIT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   68  88  66  90 /  50  20  20  20
HBR   67  90  67  91 /  40  10  20  20
SPS   70  93  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
GAG   63  86  63  88 /  30  10  30  30
PNC   66  88  67  89 /  40  10  30  30
DUA   71  90  68  92 /  70  50  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-152000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HELENA...TO KINGFISHER...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND PAULS
VALLEY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.  THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE LIFT. WINDS ALOFT HAVE INCREASED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND WILL INCREASE AT LOW LEVELS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROVIDE MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY
DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BEGINNING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

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