Lightning Strike in Colorado, April 28, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
257 PM MDT SAT APR 28 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE ALPINE AREAS...PALMER RIDGE...AND DENVER METRO
AREA.  STORMS ARE MOVING A TAD EAST OF DUE NORTH AND UNDER 20 MPH.
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS GOT GOING OVER A CONVERGENCE AREA.  GRIDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPES OUT OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.   THE LAPSES RATES ARE DECENT ALL THE WAY UP...
7.0-9.0 C/KM.  GOOD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS AROUND AND WEAK Q-G
ASCENT IS PROGGED IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.   THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE'S NOT GREAT...BUT PLENTY OF STORMS ARE GOING
ALREADY.  OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST DEAL.  FURTHER EAST...
THE TRIGGER TEMPERATEURE'S BEEN REACHED SO THE BOUNDARIES AROUND
WILL GET THINGS GOING THERE.  AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CURRENT SCENE
LOOKS GREAT FOR THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST.  GRIDS SHOW IS IT
CLEARING OUT PRETTY GOOD AFTER 06Z...WITH TEMPERATURE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING'S FOR LOWS.   RJK

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  SHT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOV ACRS
CNTRL RCKYS SUN.  GUD AMT OF MSTR AND INSTABILTY IN ADV OF SYS SUN
AFTN INTO EARLY EVE WITH DRYING AND STBLTY BEHIND SYS INTO MON AND
MON NGT.  WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS AT SCT SUN AFTN WITH
ISOLD ALL BUT FAR NERN PLAINS INTO EARLY EVE SUN NGT.  AMS WILL BE
DRY AND STBL ON MON INTO MON NGT.  WILL GENLY COMPROMISE BETWN NGM
AND AVN MOS TEMP GDNC.

IN XTNDD PRD...MRF IN GUD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OTHER MDLS INCLUDING
UKM...ECM...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS IN SHOWING CLOSD UPR LO NR 4 CRNRS
IN 120 HRS OR 12Z WED.  MRF IS PERSISTNT WITH UPR LO OVR SRN UT OR
THERE ABOUTS BFR UPSTRM KICKER MOVS SYS ACRS STA ON SAT.  LOCATION
OF SYS COULD BRING LONG PRD OF UPSLP FLO AGNST E FACE OF RCKYS AND
A GUD AMT OF PCPN ACRS N CNTRL MTNS AND NERN CO ESPCLY ON WED THRU
FRI.  STRM IS SUMWHT REMINISCENT OF HVY PCPN EVENT OF MAY 5-6 1973
FOR METRO DEN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF FUTURE MDL RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT DEPICTION.  HOWVR WILL BEEF UP WORDING H
TO INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF PCPN.  WILL COOL TEMPS TO BE MOR IN LINE
WITH WET ADIABATIC LO LVL UPSLP FLO.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-282000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1117 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  PLENTY OF HEATING AND INCREASING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST ARE THIS AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
UTAH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING
THE CHANCES.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY 3 PM.  THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 4 PM.  THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRETTY
DRY SO THE HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  SPEEDS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALzONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RJK