Damaging Wind in California, November 23, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 23 2001

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE SOME CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL SLOPES. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. LARGE SURF WILL
DECREASE BY SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS MAINLY COVERED THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...AND
SOME DENSE FOG DID FORM UP IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MARINE
LAYER...STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORMING OVER THE VALLEYS AND INLAND PARTS OF
ORANGE COUNTY...INCLUDING SOME AREAS THAT WERE SUNNY EARLIER IN THE
MORNING.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT US SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE JET STREAM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY. S-SE SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SATURDAY...SO IT MAY BE BREEZY ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY
COAST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...THIS SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF MOST OF
THE RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...I WILL LIKELY LOWER THE POPS
FOR SATURDAY. IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...I WILL ALSO REMOVE SOME OF THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MON-WED LOOK FAIR THOUGH SOMEWHAT
COOL UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

WIND IS LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM OVER THE MTNS/DESERTS LATE SAT AND SAT
NIGHT AS W OR WSW FLOW BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS DEVELOPS AT 700 MB. THUS...A
MOUNTAIN WAVE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING GUSTS IN THIS RANGE
TO THE SURFACE FROM THE CRESTS EAST. SO...I WILL CONSIDER SOME SORT OF
HIGH WIND WATCH IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR THEN.

SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY WILL NOT DROP MUCH UNTIL MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED...SO ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER
THE N MTNS. PROBABLY 5500 FEET OR SO WOULD BE THE LOWER EXTENT OF THE
SNOW LEVELS.

.SAN...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSSAN.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFSGX.
    ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSAN.

MAXWELL