Winter Storm in California, March 3 to 5, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
855 PM PST SAT MAR 03 2001

LOOKS LIKE QUITE A WEATHER EVENT TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND DEVELOPING
PACIFIC SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND MOVING EAST. CENTER OF LOW IS NOW
LOCATED AT 35/130 WITH A STRONG JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ALONG 30N. RATHER TEXTBOOK BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWS UP NICELY WITH RAPID
ENHANCEMENT TAKING PLACE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. CLOSER TO
HOME...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS
EAST. BEHIND TO WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FILLING IN AS
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE JET ARE HELPING WITH THE LIFT. AREA RADARS
SHOW THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL OPT
TO UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST ZONES TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...LOOKS
LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY AS LATEST MODELS ALL AGREE IN BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW EVENT TO ALL ZONES. WIND TO ALSO BE A
PROBLEM IN MANY ZONES AS 850 WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35-40
KNOTS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. QPF IN THE SIERRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
1.5 TO 3.0 INCH RANGE AND DUE TO THE SOURCE AREA OF THE SYSTEM BEING
PACIFIC...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FEET
RANGE IN THE YOSEMITE AREA AND 6000 TO 7000 FEET IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS.
WILL OPT TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS...FORECAST PROBLEM IS TWO-FOLD. AREAS WEST OF I-5
NEAR FRAZIER PARK STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW AND SOME LOCATIONS IN
CUDDY VALLEY HAVE NEARLY A FOOT. ELEVATIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
AROUND 5500 FEET AND EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE IN . WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE 95 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AND THIS
AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. ABOVE 6000 FEET ANOTHER LARGE
SNOW DUMP SEEMS LIKELY AS MODELS REALLY CRANK OUT THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. KERN DESERTS
TO LIKELY SEE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TOO. WITH THE MODELS ONLY
SLOWLY MOVING THE PARENT LOW EAST ON MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET 48
HOURS AHEAD AT LEAST. LATEST ETA STILL HAS THE LOW PARKED OFF POINT
CONCEPTION BY EARLY TUESDAY SO SOUTHERN ZONES TO STILL BE WET. THATS
ALL FOR NOW.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
       KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS BELOW 6000
       FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

DUDLEY