Winter Storm in California, March 3 to 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST SAT MAR 03 2001

RADAR MOSAIC LIT UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORCAL
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. ONLY ISOLATED RAWS BUCKETS
SHOWING A FEW CLICKS. CLOSED LOW ABOUT 35N AND APPROACHING 130W. WARM
FRONT APPROACHING COAST WHILE COLD FRONT IS INCHING TOWARD 134W. WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO INDUCE THE
ONSET OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.

HAVE ISSUED WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTN ZONES...BUT
EXTENDED WATCH FOR LASSEN ZONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WWA...OROGRAPHICS...AND DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOWS
GOING FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES. BUT
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SIERNEV...A DRY SLOT COMBINED
WITH UNFAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD GIVE THEM A BREAK. UP TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS BY MORNING...WITH ONLY
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NOT ENOUGH FOR EVEN
AN ADVISORY. NO BIG CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THE WINDS AND WILL
CONTINUE CURRENT TRENDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO RECENT STORMS DUE
TO PROLONGED WAA COMBINED WITH THE WARMER SOURCE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW. HAVE BUMPED SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN LEVELS TO NEAR
6000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF LOW SLOWS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE EVEN HIGHER LEVELS.

12Z AVN PREFERRED IN HOUSE AND BY HPC. THIS THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER
MODEL. IT ALSO DEPICTS THE WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT SCENARIO BETTER THAN
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ETA. H20 VAPOR SAT PIX SHOWS ENERGY DIVING DOWN
NR 47N/140W. THIS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FEATURE DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
QPF/S RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
INFLUENCED CASCADES...1.00 TO 2.00 ACROSS THE SIERNEV...AND 0.75 TO
1.25 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A SLOWING
SYSTEM AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY COULD AFFECT THESE
NUMBERS.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...KEPT DAY 7 SHOWERY.

.STO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE INTERIOR COAST
       RANGE ABOVE 4000 FEET.
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
       NRN MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY ABOVE 4000 FEET.
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST SLOPES
       OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF YOSEMITE INCLUDING
       WEST?ERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE LASSEN PARK AREA.

BLU SJ 031/037 030/035 029 678+86
RBL RW 044/051 045/054 040 679+85
SAC RW 045/054 046/055 042 679+85

KRUZDLO