High Surf in California, February 9 to 10, 2001

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST FRI FEB 9 2001

INITIAL FRONTAL BAND JUST NOW MOVING INTO SLO COUNTY. RAIN GAGES IN
MONTEREY COUNTY INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH ALREADY
AND STILL RAINING. ALSO GETTING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE FRONT.
DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY AIDING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS THERE AND
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIP, BUT I EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THE UPR JET INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BANDS.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS DON'T INDICATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OR FRONTAL FEATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SOUTHWEST LOW LVL FLOW TO CREATE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

12Z MODELS AND THE 18Z MESO ETA INDICATE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH
INTO THE LA BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD BRING MORE PRECIP WITH IT THAN THE FIRST
SYSTEM.

IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CERTAINLY SEEMS JUSTIFIED
BASED ON THE PRECIP THAT IS FALLING UP NORTH AND THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. TECHNICALLY, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT BE BORDERLINE WARNING
LEVELS, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION. WILL ALSO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SLO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
NOT BEEN REAL CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 2. FOR NOW
WILL JUST BROAD BRUSH THE EXTENDED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

LAX 9937. WOFFORD

.LAX...WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLAX).
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWSLAX).
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).