High Wind in California, December 10, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST MON DEC 10 2001

FOG LOOP INDICATING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS FILLING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE REMAINED CLEAR...BUT CONTINUING UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALLOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY DAY BREAK. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM SUNDAY/S RAINFALL...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY WHERE
LITTLE...IF ANY CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF
CONTINUED UPSLOPE.

NEXT SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH IS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN CA. SAT PIX INDICATING ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN IMPACT THAT IT WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA IS POST
FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER IT/S PASSAGE AS DEW POINTS IN THE
SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 30
DEGREES F. WITH LOWER LEVELS DRYING OUT THIS EVENING EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
VALLEY TO HAVE THEIR COLDEST NIGHT YET THIS SEASON. EARLIER SHIFT
ISSUED SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL RE-ISSUE
SPS TO FRESHEN UP WORDING. DAY SHIFT MIGHT NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FROST WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY
ZONES IF DEW POINTS PLUMMET AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH
VALLEY MIGHT BE SPARED HOWEVER...IF THE UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS HANG
AROUND LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. 06Z MESO 925 MB RH PROGS
INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND IN THE SOUTH VALLEY
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT CALL FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
MAKE. 00Z MODELS LOWER ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. LEANED TOWARD WARMER
NGM FWC NUMBERS...BUT STILL LOWERED SOME TEMPS.

MODEL PROGS INDICATE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE RIDGE OFFSHORE NEAR 140 W. MODELS PROG
TWO INSIDE SLIDER S/WAVES TO DROP DOWN NEAR THE SIERRAS. THE FIRST
WILL BE THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS P-GRADS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND USE STRONG WORDING IN ZONES. THE
SECOND S/W IS PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN
EARLIER PROGGED. THE AVN ACTUALLY SPREADS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SYSTEM LACKS UPPER SUPPORT
AND WITH THE PROGGED TRACK FURTHER EAST HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
TUESDAY NIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND LOWER POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AND FOOTHILLS NORTH OF KINGS CANYON.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN
FRIDAY. MRF IS MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN IT/S
PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF TO CENTRAL CA. ECMWF IS
DRY ACROSS OUR AREA AS IT TAKES THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST. TO AVOID
FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE DAY SHIFT WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED PACKAGE
STATUS QUO FOR NOW.

.HNX...NONE.

DS

CAZ089>092-102323-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
330 AM PST MON DEC 10 2001

THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS MAY FALL TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

A HARD FREEZE IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR
INTERESTS...SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE
PREDICTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

DS