Damaging Wind in California, April 7, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
220 AM PDT SAT APR 7 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND BRING RAIN AND
SNOW TO MOST AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER 1/2 INCH EXCEPT FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTH AND WEST
SLOPES OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...AND LESS IN THE
DESERTS. IT WILL BE WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME
CLEARING AND WARMING SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEK.

                            ...DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO ORANGE COUNTY. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. 06Z MSO IS
DEFINITELY THE PREFERRED MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO BE TRACKING THE VORT
MAX NW OF SFO WELL...AND THE 00Z MSO WAS GOOD TOO...UNLIKE THE 00Z
NOGAPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE SYSTEM WITH THE VORT MAX
BEING TRACKED TOO FAR SOUTH. MOST LIKELY...THE VORT MAX WILL STAY
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN END OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
INDICATES PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE EXTENDING AT LEAST 200 MI SW OF PT
CONCEPTION...SO THIS WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE POSITIVELY TO THE
RAIN TOTALS.

IT IS ALREADY QUITE COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS...SO THE SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD START AT AROUND 4000 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
GENERALLY...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 3-8 INCHES...DEPENDING ON
LOCATION/ELEVATION. WINDS ALOFT...LIKE AT 700 MB ARE QUITE STRONG
AND SHOULD PEAK AROUND 18Z. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION CAN BE SEEN ON
THE MSO...WHICH HAS GOOD DVV AT 700 MB OVER THE DESERTS. THE DVV
PEAKS THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN HAS MOST
FAVORABLE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO OVERALL IT SHOULD BE WINDY ALL
DAY. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERTS UNTIL 6
PM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING SHOWERS MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY. THE VORT
MAX SO FAR IS TRACKED FURTHER SOUTH...AND THERE COULD BE MORE
INSTABILITY. AFTER THAT...WE REMAIN IN SOME CYCLONIC FLOW AS A
WEAKER CLOSED LOW GOES BY TO THE SW...IF THE NEW AVN VERIFIES. DUE
TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND TOO SLOW OF TRANSITION TOWARDS EVENTUAL
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...I HAVE CUT BACK ON SOME TEMPS AND ADDED SOME
CLOUDS TO THE WED-FRI PERIOD.

SAN 74-

.SAN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 55/56/58.
       WIND ADVISORY 60/61/62.

MAXWELL