Hail in Arkansas, August 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS: RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND TEMPS

LATEST SFC/MSAS DATA SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM MENA TO HOT TO PBF. DRIER AIR IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...READINGS ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS
FCST. UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD
TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER
HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND
AVN FOR THIS FCST.

IN THE SHORT TERM...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS ENOUGH LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TO KEEP SMALL
POPS IN TONIGHT. FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TO NERN HALF OF AR ON
MONDAY AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK NWD.

AFTER MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA RESULTING IN WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. BOTH NGM AND AVN MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL
PERIODS AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

IN THE EXTENDED...STILL MANY QUESTIONS AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
CHANTAL. LATEST AVN NOW TAKING THE STORM MORE WWD...WITH THE NOGAPS
TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO NRN MEXICO. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVENTUAL OUTCOME...WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY AND HOT FOR NOW.  ..44..

.LIT...NONE.

ARZ040>042-052>057-062>069-192300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONT WAS STATIONARY FROM AROUND PINE
BLUFF TO HOT SPRINGS AND WALDRON. THE FRONT SEPARATED WARM AND
HUMID AIR TO ITS SOUTH FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
ITS NORTH. THE CONTRASTING AIR MASSES WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BECOME UNSTABLE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND...
WITH DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. BE READY TO FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...LOCAL TV AND
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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