Hail in Arizona, August 15, 2001

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST WED AUG 15 2001

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY DRY OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FOR ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE THE EAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. EXPECT MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NWRN ZONES WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST LATER
INTO THE NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TROUGH.

MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EPAC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH DRY EPAC AIR
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE REDUCTION IN PCPN AND
INCREASE IN SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.EXTENDED...EPAC RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MRF HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EPAC TROUGH BY DAY 7.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT SINCE IT COULD PROVIDE A MOIST
FETCH OF AIR MOVING OVER ARIZONA LATE IN THE EXTENDED AND WOULD
REQUIRE HIGHER POPS.  DB

.FGZ...NONE.