Dense Fog in Kansas, December 31, 2000

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MST SUN DEC 31 2000

...CHALLENGE IS WHETHER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN MORNING OR NOT...

AT INITIALIZATION MODELS AGAIN SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. AT SFC
NGM TOO HIGH ON PRESSURES. ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVN. WILL GO
WITH ETA.

PESKY LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN NW KS WHILE MORE CLEARING ELSEWHERE.
WITH VERY LATE CLEARING...BL HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM GLD E
AND SE AS PER ETA AND AVN...FRESH SNOW COVER AND 18Z ETA SHOWING LOW
LEVEL SAT FROM 12Z TO 15Z THINK LOW CLDS AND SOME FOG MAY BE A PROB
TONIGHT LATE. ALSO DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
EITHER IN MODELS OR ON WV LOOP. FURTHER THINK WILL BE UNDER NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW
CENTER ALOFT OVER S MN/N IA MOVES SSE DRAGGING WK S/W OVER KS DURING
NIGHT.

SO WILL GO WITH CLEAR BUT WITH LOW CLDS AND FOG DEVELOPING IN E PTN
CWA LATE. EVEN CREW CAN ADJUST SHOULD STRONG SUBSIDENCE BECOME
EVIDENT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUID...PARTICULARLY IN WEST WHERE
CLEAR AND RADIATION AND IN EAST WHERE ARCTIC AIR STRONGEST.

NEW YEARS DAY MODELS INDICATE SOME CLEARING BUT HOLD ON TO SOME LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AS ARCTIC HIGH SLIPS SLOWLY SE TO E WILL GO
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPS NEAR GUID JUST BELOW
FREEZING AS WIND FIELD WEAK UPSLOPE AND OFF OF SNOW FIELDS.

AT 85H ALL MODELS SHOW STEADY WARMING FROM MON EVEN ON FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. AGAIN MON NIGHT MODELS SHOW 'VARIABLE' CLOUDS SO WILL GO
WITH MOSTLY CLDY EVERYWHERE AND PROBABLY CHANCE FOR FOG IN EAST
AGAIN AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT OVER SNOW FIELDS. LOWS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUID AND UP TWO CATS FROM TONIGHT.

TUES S/W APPROACHES FROM NW AND IS REFLECTED AT SFC BY 'PACIFIC'
FRONT/TROUGH. LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY. WITH VERY CLEAR SKIES AND
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GO WITH WARMER FAN/MAV TEMPS
GENERALLY IN MID 40S FOR HIGHS AND UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF CATS ON LOWS
(MAINLY IN LOW 20S).

IN EXTENDED WED AND THU CONTINUE WARMING TREND WITH THU LOOKING TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 50S. CONTINUED DRY
THROUGHOUT EXTENDED. WEAK COLD OF 'PACIFIC' ORIGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THU/EARLY FRI AND MODIFIES TEMPS SLIGHTLY (BACK TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL). SAT AND SUN REMAINS OF CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OFF BAJA CA COAST NOW MOVES EAST ACROSS CEN/S PLAINS AS WEAK S/W
IN NEAR ZONAHL FLOW ACROSS FLATTENED RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
AND DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FROM S/W AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MILD/PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH AT SFC.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC