Current weather · Sep 26, 6:04 AM EDT

24.6600, -81.5380

77°

Mostly SunnyFeels like 77° · Humidity 94%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS Key West, FL · grid 71,54
High
88°
Low
76°
Rain today
12%
Sunrise
7:16 AM
Sunset
7:18 PM
First issued 14 hours agoExpires in 11 hours · 5:00 PM EDT

All alerts for this county, and its warning history

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Sat 6 AM77°77°75°94%12%NE9 mph13 mph39%25%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 7 AM77°77°75°94%12%NE9 mph13 mph39%25%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 8 AM78°78°75°91%11%NE7 mph9 mph36%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 9 AM80°85°75°85%11%NE7 mph9 mph36%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 10 AM82°89°75°79%11%NE7 mph9 mph36%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 11 AM83°90°74°74%11%NE7 mph9 mph34%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 12 PM84°91°74°72%11%NE7 mph9 mph34%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 1 PM85°93°74°70%11%NE7 mph9 mph34%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 2 PM84°90°73°70%11%N3 mph5 mph32%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 3 PM84°90°73°70%11%N3 mph5 mph32%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 4 PM86°92°72°63%11%N3 mph5 mph32%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 5 PM85°91°72°65%11%NNW5 mph7 mph24%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 6 PM84°90°72°67%11%NNW5 mph7 mph24%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 7 PM83°88°71°67%11%NNW5 mph7 mph24%27%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 8 PM81°85°71°72%9%NNW5 mph7 mph13%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 9 PM80°83°71°74%9%NNW5 mph7 mph13%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 10 PM81°85°71°72%9%NNW5 mph7 mph13%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 11 PM81°85°70°69%9%N5 mph7 mph10%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 12 AM80°83°70°72%9%N5 mph7 mph10%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 1 AM80°83°70°72%9%N5 mph7 mph10%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 2 AM80°83°70°72%9%N5 mph7 mph8%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 3 AM79°79°70°74%9%N5 mph7 mph8%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 4 AM79°79°70°74%9%N5 mph7 mph8%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 5 AM79°79°71°77%9%N5 mph7 mph14%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 6 AM79°79°71°77%9%N5 mph7 mph14%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 7 AM78°78°71°79%9%N5 mph7 mph14%12%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 8 AM79°79°71°77%13%NNE5 mph7 mph18%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 9 AM81°85°71°72%13%NNE5 mph7 mph18%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 10 AM83°88°71°67%13%NNE5 mph7 mph18%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 11 AM84°89°71°65%13%N2 mph3 mph21%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 12 PM85°90°71°63%13%N2 mph3 mph21%14%——
Sun 1 PM85°90°70°61%13%N2 mph3 mph21%14%——
Sun 2 PM85°90°70°61%13%NW1 mph1 mph30%14%——
Sun 3 PM84°88°70°63%13%NW1 mph1 mph30%14%——
Sun 4 PM86°91°70°59%13%NW1 mph1 mph30%14%——
Sun 5 PM85°90°70°61%13%WNW2 mph3 mph37%14%——
Sun 6 PM84°88°70°63%13%WNW2 mph3 mph37%14%——
Sun 7 PM83°87°70°65%13%WNW2 mph3 mph37%14%——
Sun 8 PM81°85°70°69%12%WNW2 mph3 mph42%12%——
Sun 9 PM80°83°70°72%12%WNW2 mph3 mph42%12%——
Sun 10 PM80°83°70°72%12%WNW2 mph3 mph42%12%——
Sun 11 PM80°83°70°72%12%WSW2 mph3 mph51%12%——
Mon 12 AM80°83°70°72%12%WSW2 mph3 mph51%12%——
Mon 1 AM80°83°70°72%12%WSW2 mph3 mph51%12%——
Mon 2 AM79°79°70°74%12%SW2 mph3 mph60%12%——
Mon 3 AM79°79°70°74%12%SW2 mph3 mph60%12%——
Mon 4 AM78°78°70°76%12%SW2 mph3 mph60%12%——
Mon 5 AM78°78°70°76%12%W1 mph1 mph56%12%——

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Sep 26, 5:15 AM EDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 10, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodaySep 2688°76°Mostly Sunny12%wind 10 mph
  2. SunSep 2787°77°Sunny13%wind 5 mph
  3. MonSep 2889°76°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms65%0.17 inwind 3 mph
  4. TueSep 2989°76°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely73%0.57 inwind 7 mph
  5. WedSep 3089°77°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely73%0.36 inwind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
  6. ThuOct 190°78°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely69%0.57 inwind 16 mph
  7. FriOct 291°79°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms53%0.24 inwind 15 mph · gusts 21 mph
  8. SatOct 390°79°41%0.02 inwind 13 mph · gusts 18 mph
  9. SunOct 491°79°National Blend39%0.08 inwind 12 mph
  10. MonOct 590°78°National Blend37%0.22 inwind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
  11. TueOct 6~84°83°Model mean0.26 in
  12. WedOct 7~83°82°Model mean0.20 in
  13. ThuOct 8~83°81°Model mean0.29 in
  14. FriOct 9~83°81°Model mean0.60 in
  15. SatOct 10~82°80°Model mean0.69 in
  16. SunOct 11~83°80°Model mean0.75 in

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like77°
  • WindNE 9 mphgusts 13 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity94%
  • Dew point75°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility10 mi
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
  • Moonrise7:15 PMMoonset 7:06 AM
  • Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

The National Blend of Models

NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDT

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

  1. TodaySep 2688°77°NWS grid 88° / 76°rain 18%thunder 14%0.01 inwind 9 mph
  2. SunSep 2788°77°NWS grid 87° / 77°rain 10%thunder 19%wind 5 mph
  3. MonSep 2889°76°NWS grid 89° / 76°rain 70%thunder 43%0.21 inwind 5 mph
  4. TueSep 2989°77°NWS grid 89° / 76°rain 82%thunder 57%0.53 inwind 7 mph
  5. WedSep 3090°78°NWS grid 89° / 77°rain 77%thunder 50%0.38 inwind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
  6. ThuOct 191°79°NWS grid 90° / 78°rain 71%thunder 48%0.58 inwind 17 mph
  7. FriOct 289°79°NWS grid 91° / 79°rain 55%thunder 39%0.20 inwind 15 mph · gusts 21 mph
  8. SatOct 391°79°NWS grid 90° / 79°rain 42%thunder 33%wind 13 mph · gusts 18 mph
  9. SunOct 491°79°Beyond the NWS gridrain 39%0.08 inwind 12 mph
  10. MonOct 590°78°Beyond the NWS gridrain 37%0.22 inwind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
  11. TueOct 690°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 42%0.07 inwind 7 mph
77°86°95°SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly

The models, side by side

HRRR Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDT · GFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · GEFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF AI Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

68°82°95°SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

DayNWS gridHRRRGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Sep 2688° 76°86° 77°82° 80°0.02 in82° 80°0.05 in82° 80°0.08 in~82° 81°0.05 in
Sun Sep 2787° 77°85° 75°0.21 in82° 81°82° 80°0.04 in82° 79°0.05 in~83° 82°
Mon Sep 2889° 76°0.17 in~77° 77°83° 81°0.13 in82° 81°0.16 in83° 81°~83° 80°0.34 in
Tue Sep 2989° 76°0.57 in—83° 83°0.18 in83° 82°0.30 in83° 77°0.80 in~81° 79°0.60 in
Wed Sep 3089° 77°0.36 in—83° 82°0.37 in83° 82°0.31 in83° 75°0.46 in~81° 80°0.55 in
Thu Oct 190° 78°0.57 in—83° 79°0.70 in83° 83°0.40 in85° 80°0.49 in~83° 82°0.42 in
Fri Oct 291° 79°0.24 in—84° 83°0.09 in83° 83°0.44 in~85° 82°0.20 in~85° 82°0.26 in
Sat Oct 390° 79°0.02 in—84° 83°0.02 in84° 83°0.22 in~85° 83°0.07 in~85° 84°0.12 in
Sun Oct 4——84° 83°0.17 in84° 83°0.21 in~85° 82°~85° 84°0.09 in
Mon Oct 5——84° 83°0.05 in84° 83°0.18 in~84° 82°0.09 in~85° 83°0.09 in
Tue Oct 6——~84° 83°0.24 in—~84° 82°0.33 in~84° 83°0.21 in
Wed Oct 7——~83° 82°0.06 in—~82° 80°0.30 in~84° 82°0.24 in
Thu Oct 8——~83° 83°0.11 in—~81° 80°0.18 in~83° 81°0.58 in
Fri Oct 9——~84° 83°0.10 in—~82° 80°0.33 in~82° 81°1.37 in
Sat Oct 10——~83° 81°0.88 in—~81° 78°0.46 in~82° 80°0.73 in
Sun Oct 11——~83° 80°0.75 in———

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Key West Nas (NQX) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature lean80%60%warmer 50% · Oct 202633% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40°60°80°100°TodayOct 1Nov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Sep 2688° / 78°99° (2017)70° (1993)no outlookno outlook
Oct 388° / 79°93° (2024)70° (1946)60% chance above normal · days 8 to 1433% chance above normal · days 8 to 14
Oct 1087° / 78°94° (2022)66° (1977)50% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 1785° / 76°92° (2022)63° (1989)50% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2484° / 75°91° (2019)60° (1957)50% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 3183° / 75°96° (2020)54° (1966)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 782° / 72°94° (2020)58° (1969)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 1480° / 71°95° (2020)54° (1975)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2181° / 71°94° (2020)50° (1970)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2880° / 70°94° (2020)50° (1959)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 579° / 69°89° (2022)51° (1962)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1277° / 67°90° (2022)45° (2010)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1977° / 67°90° (2007)43° (1989)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayHighheat
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightPoorwarm night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayFairhot
  • HikingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • BikingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • GolftodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • Beach and pooltodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • CampingtonightGoodthunderstorms
  • StargazingtonightPoorpartly cloudy

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hVery goodCoastal Flood Statement in force
  • Drivingnext 24 hVery goodCoastal Flood Statement in force

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GardeningtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayVery goodhumid
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayIdealfine conditions
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayVery highwarm
  • TickstodayHighwarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayVery highwarm

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
SaturdayFair8:34 PM to 6:01 AM9 of 9None100%Fair5 mph
SundayPoor8:33 PM to 6:01 AM0 of 9None98%2 mph
MondayPoor8:32 PM to 6:02 AM0 of 9None94%5 mph
TuesdayPoor8:31 PM to 6:02 AM0 of 9None87%4 h6 mph
WednesdayPoor8:30 PM to 6:03 AM0 of 10None80%3 h12 mph
ThursdayPoor8:29 PM to 6:03 AM0 of 10None70%5 h14 mph
FridayPoor8:27 PM to 6:03 AM0 of 10None60%5 h12 mph

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Sat6:54 AM to 7:02 AM7:02 AM to 7:46 AM6:48 PM to 7:32 PM7:32 PM to 7:41 PM
Sun6:54 AM to 7:03 AM7:03 AM to 7:47 AM6:47 PM to 7:31 PM7:31 PM to 7:40 PM
Mon6:54 AM to 7:03 AM7:03 AM to 7:47 AM6:46 PM to 7:30 PM7:30 PM to 7:39 PM
Tue6:55 AM to 7:03 AM7:03 AM to 7:48 AM6:45 PM to 7:29 PM7:29 PM to 7:38 PM
Wed6:55 AM to 7:04 AM7:04 AM to 7:48 AM6:44 PM to 7:28 PM7:28 PM to 7:37 PM
Thu6:55 AM to 7:04 AM7:04 AM to 7:48 AM6:43 PM to 7:27 PM7:27 PM to 7:36 PM
Fri6:56 AM to 7:05 AM7:05 AM to 7:49 AM6:42 PM to 7:26 PM7:26 PM to 7:35 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:16 AM, 91° E
  • SS Sunset 7:18 PM, 269° W
  • MR Moonrise 7:15 PM, 84° E
  • MS Moonset 7:06 AM, 273° W
  • Full moon, 100% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: no-fly (gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:46 AM to sunrise 7:16 AM, and sunset 7:18 PM to 7:48 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Sat6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Sat 6 AMNo-fly9222612%10 miup to 0 ft77°gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 7 AMNo-fly9121512%10 miup to 0 ft77°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Sat 8 AMNo-fly791111%10 miup to 0 ft78°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 9 AMNo-fly791111%10 miup to 0 ft80°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 10 AMNo-fly781111%10 miup to 0 ft82°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 11 AMNo-fly781111%10 miup to 0 ft83°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 12 PMNo-fly781111%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 1 PMNo-fly781111%10 miup to 0 ft85°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 2 PMNo-fly34511%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 3 PMNo-fly34511%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 4 PMNo-fly34511%10 miup to 0 ft86°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 5 PMNo-fly56811%10 miup to 0 ft85°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 6 PMNo-fly56811%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 7 PMNo-fly5182111%10 miup to 0 ft83°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 8 PMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft81°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 9 PMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 10 PMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft81°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 11 PMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft81°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 12 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 1 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 2 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 3 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft79°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 4 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft79°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 5 AMNo-fly518219%10 miup to 0 ft79°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Sat 9 AM to Sun 11 AM 26 hours, every hour within the rules
Sat6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
SaturdayDry11%0.01 in63%7 mph2 d
SundayDry13%0.00 in59%5 mph1 d
MondayShowers possible31%0.17 in61%3 mph
TuesdayWet61%0.57 in68%7 mph
WednesdayWet55%0.36 in66%12 mph
ThursdayWet67%0.57 in68%16 mph
FridayWet52%0.24 in68%15 mph
SaturdayShowers possible31%0.02 in68%13 mph

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Sat Best11:51 PM to 1:51 AM12:13 PM to 2:13 PM6:36 AM to 7:36 AM6:45 PM to 7:45 PM 100%7:16 AM, 7:18 PM
Sun Best12:37 AM to 2:37 AM1:00 PM to 3:00 PM7:35 AM to 8:35 AM7:20 PM to 8:20 PM 99%7:17 AM, 7:17 PM
Mon Good1:25 AM to 3:25 AM1:50 PM to 3:50 PM8:37 AM to 9:37 AM7:59 PM to 8:59 PM 95%7:17 AM, 7:16 PM
Tue Fair2:17 AM to 4:17 AM2:44 PM to 4:44 PM9:41 AM to 10:41 AM8:43 PM to 9:43 PM 90%7:17 AM, 7:15 PM
Wed Poor3:13 AM to 5:13 AM3:42 PM to 5:42 PM10:48 AM to 11:48 AM9:34 PM to 10:34 PM 83%7:18 AM, 7:14 PM
Thu Fair4:13 AM to 6:13 AM4:44 PM to 6:44 PM11:55 AM to 12:55 PM10:32 PM to 11:32 PM 74%7:18 AM, 7:13 PM
Fri Fair5:15 AM to 7:15 AM5:47 PM to 7:47 PM12:59 PM to 1:59 PM 64%7:19 AM, 7:12 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. Overnight76° · 12% · NE 10 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

  2. Saturday88° · 12% · N 5–10 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

  3. Saturday Night77° · 11% · N 5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 77. North wind around 5 mph.

  4. Sunday87° · 13% · N 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 87. North wind 0 to 5 mph.

  5. Sunday Night77° · 13% · 0 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. West wind around 0 mph.

  6. Monday89° · 31% · SW 0–5 mph

    A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  7. Monday Night76° · 65% · S 0–5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  8. Tuesday89° · 65% · SE 0–5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  9. Tuesday Night76° · 73% · SE 5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  10. Wednesday89° · 73% · E 5–10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  11. Wednesday Night77° · 69% · E 10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  12. Thursday90° · 69% · E 10–15 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  13. Thursday Night78° · 67% · E 10–15 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  14. Friday91° · 53% · SE 15 mph

    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS Key West, FL · issued Sep 26, 5:15 AM EDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

KEY Messages

Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be required for all of the Keys by Monday night.

Increasing northeasterly swell from a Nor'easter off the East Coast will produce 4 to 5 foot seas through the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys.

Discussion

502 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A significantly drier airmass aloft continues to expand across the Florida Keys early this AM. Based on water vapor imagery, the cold front has progressed slightly farther south than expected, extending south-southwest from the parent nor'easter spinning off the Mid- Atlantic/New England coast, through the Bahamas and across to even slightly south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue across the Keys and surrounding waters this morning, but will become light to gentle by this afternoon. The nor'easter will remain trapped between broad Atlantic ridging and persistent ridging over the Central CONUS before eventually breaking down and ejecting towards the northern Atlantic during the Monday to Wednesday timeframe. In the meantime, deep west-northwesterly flow will continue across the Keys this weekend as embedded shortwaves rotate around the coastal low and maintain some measure of cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. We're already seeing the effects of this with isolated showers ongoing near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida despite a deep layer of dry air measured on our 00Z RAOB above 900mb. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows even drier air surging south in the eastern Gulf. Any isolated development will remain rather benign today and tomorrow, and most of the day will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some locations along the Island Chain will see dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Sunday which will drop humidity values down into the 50-60% range.

Our primary concern over the next couple of days and potentially into next week will be saltwater flooding of low-lying areas along the Keys caused by a peak in astronomical tides compounded by a backed up Gulf Stream due to the strong nor'easter and associated gale force winds along the East Coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Upper Keys while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys through at least this afternoon, but extensions are likely. Eventual upgrades may be needed for the Lower/Middle Keys early next week.

Speaking of next week, it certainly looks as though our below-normal rain chances will be short-lived. On Monday, the lower-levels of the atmosphere will become influenced by Atlantic ridging which will extend across the Keys and promote a switch back to low-level southerly flow. Meanwhile to our north, the continental ridge is progged to retrograde westward just enough to allow the upper-level trough along the coast to deepen across the Southeast and into the Gulf. By Monday night, we'll see a quick resurgence in moisture content with increasing rain and thunder chances. The mid to upper- level trough will continue to provide forcing across the area through at least Wednesday, even as the nor'easter begins to lift away, leaving behind residual upper-level troughing across the Florida Peninsula to as far south as the Yucatan. Global models indicate that piece of left behind upper-level energy may begin to deepen near the Yucatan by the middle to end of the week, potentially sustaining an active period across the Florida Keys through the end of the forecast period. Unfortunately, a wet forecast on top of King Tides may exacerbate the flooding issues, but the details will be ironed out as we get closer.

Marine

502 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Isolated showers are currently tracking towards the south- southeast around 5 to 10 knots in the Gulfside waters near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida. This activity will gradually wane over the next few hours. Marine observations are currently reporting gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes. Breezes will become light to gentle through the morning.

From synopsis, an early season cold front will remain draped across the distant Straits of Florida for much of the weekend, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor'easter off the Eastern Seaboard will support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The front will push back northward on Monday through the marine zones. Winds will then clock back around to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances.

Aviation

122 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

(06Z TAFS)

VCSH will continue near KEYW for another few hours with occasional bouts of MVFR ceilings possible at both terminals. In all, VFR conditions will prevail for much of this TAF cycle due to a large amount of dry air present across the area in the wake of a front. A secondary trough axis rotating south across the eastern Gulf will occasionally produce spotty showers, but coverage will be limited. Expect persistent northerly sfc winds around 5 to 10 knots.

KEY Watches / Warnings / Advisories

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076.

GM...None.

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Sat Sep 26No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Sun Sep 27No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Mon Sep 28General Thunderstorms Risk
  4. Day 4 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Sat Oct 3No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Sat Sep 260.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Sun Sep 27Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Mon Sep 280.25 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Sep 29–Sep 300.75 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 1–Oct 20.50 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · Temperature80% chance above normalOct 1–Oct 5
  2. Days 6–10 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 1–Oct 5
  3. Days 8–14 · Temperature60% chance above normalOct 3–Oct 9
  4. Days 8–14 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 3–Oct 9

Drought

  1. Drought MonitorNo drought
  2. Outlook for Sep 2026Drought removal likely

Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Key West Nas

A freeze (32°F or colder) comes in only 0 percent of years here.

Climate of 24.66, -81.54: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 31 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSat
HeatRisk max1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor2 · Moderate2 · Moderate2 · Moderate
Wet bulb globe temperature max84°83°83°83°84°84°85°86°
Heat index max93°91°92°94°98°100°102°102°
Chance of thunder max27%14%48%48%45%41%38%31%
Lightning activity level max11333333
Cloud ceiling min-100 ft-100 ft
Visibility min10 mi10 mi
Mixing height max3,400 ft3,800 ft3,700 ft1,200 ft2,500 ft
Transport wind max14 mph9 mph9 mph7 mph15 mph
Twenty-foot wind max7 mph3 mph2 mph6 mph9 mph13 mph12 mph9 mph
Dispersion index max2933428
Low visibility risk max6446

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Key West Nas (NQX) · 11 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Sat Sep 2688° / 76°89° / 79°99° (2017)71° (1957)
Sun Sep 2787° / 77°88° / 78°93° (2017)70° (1993)
Mon Sep 2889° / 76°88° / 78°92° (1980)71° (1953)
Tue Sep 2989° / 76°88° / 78°92° (2007)70° (2001)
Wed Sep 3089° / 77°89° / 78°92° (2011)73° (1946)
Thu Oct 190° / 78°88° / 78°92° (2020)71° (1955)
Fri Oct 291° / 79°88° / 78°92° (2021)71° (1953)
Sat Oct 390° / 79°88° / 78°93° (2024)71° (1997)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Sat6:54 AM7:16 AM7:18 PM7:41 PM12 h 2 min Full moon · 100% lit
Sun6:54 AM7:17 AM7:17 PM7:40 PM12 h 0 min Waning gibbous · 99% lit
Mon6:54 AM7:17 AM7:16 PM7:39 PM11 h 59 min Waning gibbous · 95% lit
Tue6:55 AM7:17 AM7:15 PM7:38 PM11 h 58 min Waning gibbous · 90% lit
Wed6:55 AM7:18 AM7:14 PM7:37 PM11 h 56 min Waning gibbous · 83% lit
Thu6:55 AM7:18 AM7:13 PM7:36 PM11 h 55 min Waning gibbous · 74% lit
Fri6:56 AM7:19 AM7:12 PM7:35 PM11 h 53 min Waning gibbous · 64% lit
Sat6:56 AM7:19 AM7:11 PM7:34 PM11 h 52 min Last quarter · 54% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from