Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

 - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for portions of NE OK,
   near the OK/KS border until 7 AM. Damaging wind gusts will be
   the main severe hazard.

 - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK
   spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather
   possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

 - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low to
   medium rain chances through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A line of strong and severe thunderstorms has formed across
southeast KS, along a southeast-advancing cold front that is
currently on the doorstep of the forecast area. The line of
convection has produced a distinct outflow boundary that has
pushed well ahead of the squall line. As long as this stays true,
it will keep any tornado threat just about at zero. Main severe
hazard with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, with
isolated large hail embedded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and
Ottawa counties until 7 AM. The line is forecast to reach the
I-44 corridor right around sunrise Tuesday, give/take an hour.
Latest consensus in CAMs show some weakening of the line as it
moves southeast of I-44, though pockets of strong and severe
storms will still be possible as the line becomes more diffused.
As it moves into southeast OK late in the morning and into the
afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and existing outflow
boundaries may cause re-intensification in the line; damaging
winds would be the main threat if anything severe develops. The
severe threat will shift south and east of the area by mid-
afternoon, with lingering light to moderate stratiform rain
lingering mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR through the
remainder of the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will vary
from half an inch to around an inch. A few locations may have
amounts closer to two inches with pockets of intense cores
embedded in the line.

Southwest flow aloft with maintain itself through the daytime and
evening on Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the 925-850mb
frontal boundary late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across
northeast OK and northwest AR. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected, but an additional rainfall amount up to half an inch
will be possible. Precipitation chances will continue through the
end of the short- term period.

Substantially cooler temperatures will follow the cold front
overnight tonight and during the day Tuesday, with temperatures
falling into the 60s and lower 70s immediately behind the front.
Temperatures across southeast OK and northwest AR could reach the
lower 80s in the afternoon prior to the frontal passage. The front
will exit the forecast area sometime around sunset. Cloud
coverage should stay thick through Tuesday night and should keep
temperatures from plummeting overnight. Regardless, overnight lows
will drop into the 50s and 60s by sunrise Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Consensus in model guidance continues to show a series of passing
mid/upper-level waves through the remainder of the week, through
this upcoming weekend, and even into early next week. As such,
there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
the long-term period. At this time, flow aloft is expected to be
fairly light and not very supportive of severe weather through at
least Thursday and much of Friday. However, PWATs are expected to
remain abnormally high through the period and the upper-level
waves will likely produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at
times. One possible instance of heavy rainfall will occur
Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night as a couple of
shortwaves combine over the area. Another instance of heavy rain
is forecast to occur Friday night into Saturday morning as a more
potent trough passes to the north of the area. Instability and
shear will become a little more defined and a limited severe
threat may develop Friday evening/night as storms are expected to
initiate off a dryline in western OK Friday afternoon and push
eastward into the region later. Better details on timing and
severity will come in later days. An active pattern will persist
Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered precipitation
chances each day. Northerly winds and cloud cover (with
precipitation chances) will keep temperatures below average
through Thursday. Temperatures climb back near seasonal average by
Friday before climbing above average by late in the weekend or
early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in advance of a line of strong
thunderstorms associated with a cold front early in the forecast
period. Storms will be accompanied by lowering ceilings and
visibility as they slowly progress southeast, with some potential
for gusty winds as well. A period of gusty north winds will follow
the front with MVFR ceilings likely prevailing in most locations
through at least Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  71  61  74 /  70  20  60  90
FSM   66  80  65  79 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   62  77  65  77 /  50  40  40  90
BVO   52  69  55  73 /  70  10  60  90
FYV   62  75  61  77 /  60  50  40  60
BYV   60  70  59  74 /  70  40  20  60
MKO   59  74  62  75 /  60  30  50  80
MIO   55  68  58  74 /  80  30  50  80
F10   57  73  61  75 /  60  20  50  90
HHW   65  79  65  76 /  50  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-192300-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
554 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front is
expected to enter northeast Oklahoma late tonight and move
southeast across the area towards morning through Tuesday morning.
Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat with these
storms, with a low chance for an isolated brief tornadic spinup
along the line.

Gusty south winds will continue this evening and overnight until
the arrival of the aforementioned cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will be ongoing Tuesday, gradually working
southeast through the morning and early afternoon. A few severe
storms will remain possible, with damaging winds the main
threat, and hail a lesser threat. Much cooler air will move in
throughout the day behind the cold front. A few additional
showers and possibly a thunderstorm will develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the latter half of the week into the weekend as
well. Temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ059-154-254-190745-
Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
203 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles south of Shidler to 8 miles northeast of
Sooner Lake. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9666 3674 9620 3655 9643 3656 9649
      3648 9651 3642 9659 3644 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 278DEG 25KT 3673 9664 3649 9690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ056-057-190900-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
326 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CRAIG AND SOUTHERN
NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Nowata, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Delaware...
Watova...                         Centralia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9532 3660 9561 3660 9566 3670 9576
      3691 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 236DEG 28KT 3670 9558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH