Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

556 
WGUS74 KTSA 191458
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
958 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKC035-115-191508-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260519T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
958 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL CRAIG AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended and additional flooding is not anticipated.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9494 3700 9462 3675 9462 3668 9499
      3676 9513

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

 - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK
   spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather
   possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

 - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low to
   medium rain chances through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A line of strong and severe thunderstorms has formed across
southeast KS, along a southeast-advancing cold front that is
currently on the doorstep of the forecast area. The line of
convection has produced a distinct outflow boundary that has
pushed well ahead of the squall line. As long as this stays true,
it will keep any tornado threat just about at zero. Main severe
hazard with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, with
isolated large hail embedded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and
Ottawa counties until 7 AM. The line is forecast to reach the
I-44 corridor right around sunrise Tuesday, give/take an hour.
Latest consensus in CAMs show some weakening of the line as it
moves southeast of I-44, though pockets of strong and severe
storms will still be possible as the line becomes more diffused.
As it moves into southeast OK late in the morning and into the
afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and existing outflow
boundaries may cause re-intensification in the line; damaging
winds would be the main threat if anything severe develops. The
severe threat will shift south and east of the area by mid-
afternoon, with lingering light to moderate stratiform rain
lingering mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR through the
remainder of the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will vary
from half an inch to around an inch. A few locations may have
amounts closer to two inches with pockets of intense cores
embedded in the line.

Southwest flow aloft with maintain itself through the daytime and
evening on Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the 925-850mb
frontal boundary late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across
northeast OK and northwest AR. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected, but an additional rainfall amount up to half an inch
will be possible. Precipitation chances will continue through the
end of the short- term period.

Substantially cooler temperatures will follow the cold front
overnight tonight and during the day Tuesday, with temperatures
falling into the 60s and lower 70s immediately behind the front.
Temperatures across southeast OK and northwest AR could reach the
lower 80s in the afternoon prior to the frontal passage. The front
will exit the forecast area sometime around sunset. Cloud
coverage should stay thick through Tuesday night and should keep
temperatures from plummeting overnight. Regardless, overnight lows
will drop into the 50s and 60s by sunrise Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Consensus in model guidance continues to show a series of passing
mid/upper-level waves through the remainder of the week, through
this upcoming weekend, and even into early next week. As such,
there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
the long-term period. At this time, flow aloft is expected to be
fairly light and not very supportive of severe weather through at
least Thursday and much of Friday. However, PWATs are expected to
remain abnormally high through the period and the upper-level
waves will likely produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at
times. One possible instance of heavy rainfall will occur
Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night as a couple of
shortwaves combine over the area. Another instance of heavy rain
is forecast to occur Friday night into Saturday morning as a more
potent trough passes to the north of the area. Instability and
shear will become a little more defined and a limited severe
threat may develop Friday evening/night as storms are expected to
initiate off a dryline in western OK Friday afternoon and push
eastward into the region later. Better details on timing and
severity will come in later days. An active pattern will persist
Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered precipitation
chances each day. Northerly winds and cloud cover (with
precipitation chances) will keep temperatures below average
through Thursday. Temperatures climb back near seasonal average by
Friday before climbing above average by late in the weekend or
early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A couple hour period of thunderstorm impacts will affect all
terminals except BVO during the first 6 hours or so of the valid
TAF period, with IFR/MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds
behind a cold front. Reduced visibilities should develop this
evening and continue overnight, with a low chance of locally IFR
visibilities that will not be mentioned for now. CAMs continue to
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 06-08Z,
which will be covered by PROB30 groups at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  57  71  61 /  70  70  20  60
FSM   79  66  80  65 /  90  50  70  50
MLC   77  62  77  65 /  80  50  40  40
BVO   66  52  69  55 /  40  70  10  60
FYV   77  62  75  61 /  80  60  50  40
BYV   77  60  70  59 /  90  70  40  20
MKO   75  59  74  62 /  90  60  30  50
MIO   72  55  68  58 /  80  80  30  50
F10   75  57  73  61 /  80  60  20  50
HHW   78  65  79  65 /  90  50  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-200930-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
423 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong thunderstorms along a cold front moving southward
through the area is located across parts of northeast Oklahoma
early this morning. Thunderstorms will continue to move to the
south and east through the morning and into the afternoon hours,
with potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat, with
locally large hail possible. The severe weather potential should
diminish by late afternoon as colder air moves in behind the
front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend and
into early next week, with multiple opportunities for additional
showers and thunderstorms. Thursday night and into Friday appears
to feature the best chance for heavy rains as a disturbance moves
through the region and deep layer moisture remains high. Overall
the potential for severe weather is very low for much of the
period, except for possibly Friday night.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ059-154-254-190745-
Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
203 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles south of Shidler to 8 miles northeast of
Sooner Lake. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9666 3674 9620 3655 9643 3656 9649
      3648 9651 3642 9659 3644 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 278DEG 25KT 3673 9664 3649 9690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ056-057-190900-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
326 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CRAIG AND SOUTHERN
NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Nowata, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Delaware...
Watova...                         Centralia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9532 3660 9561 3660 9566 3670 9576
      3691 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 236DEG 28KT 3670 9558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
430 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ057-058-063-191000-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
430 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CRAIG...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM
CDT...

At 430 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
north of Vinita, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Afton...
Bernice...                        Bluejacket...
Pyramid Corners...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 284 and 297.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 9528 3679 9528 3688 9495 3662 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 263DEG 24KT 3671 9518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ061-062-067-191200-
Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
617 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN ROGERS...MAYES AND
NORTHEASTERN WAGONER COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM CDT...

At 617 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles south of Chelsea to 5 miles east of
Oneta. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Chouteau...                       Inola...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
Langley...                        Adair...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            Sportsmen Acres Community...
Tiawah...                         Strang...
Mazie...                          Snowdale State Park...
Murphy...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 254 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9503 3601 9526 3602 9566 3651 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1117Z 272DEG 21KT 3646 9540 3604 9561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH