Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

 - Severe storm chances continue through late evening Wednesday.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday.

 - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are
   expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Early afternoon Wednesday, a moisture plume with precipitable
water values locally in excess of 1.5 inches remained common
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas east of a surface
boundary positioned from west Texas through western Oklahoma and
across central Kansas. Within this plume, both surface and
elevated instability had become re-established across the region
with the instability maximized along the boundary and eastward
over central and northeast Oklahoma. Scattered convection was
ongoing over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas within a
southern portion of a 30-35KT low level jet holding over the CWA.
A limited severe potential exists with this activity, though deep
layer shear vectors were not quite as strong as they are back to
the west. Small hail and gusty winds are probable with the
stronger storms. This activity should move out of northwest
Arkansas through the early afternoon hours.

Additional storm development is expected over the CWA through the
afternoon hours both initiating near the surface boundary and also
out ahead of it. Deep layer shear is progged to increase from west
to east as the boundary pushes eastward toward the CWA from a
shortwave moving east northeast across the Plains. The combination
of increasing shear, steep mid level lapse rates, the amount of
instability over the CWA and dewpoints running in the mid/upper
60s will quickly aid in the increase of severe probabilities. At
the onset, with more discrete storm development, the potential
for all modes of severe weather exist this afternoon. With shear
values more parallel to the boundary, storm development becoming
broken lines and clusters could transition severe probs to more of
a damaging wind threat this evening into tonight. Also, a heavy
rain threat exists with the potential for localized flood concerns
through tonight.

At the same time, a tornado threat remains across the CWA with the
greater potential looking to become QLCS along the leading edge
of the broken line segments this evening into the early overnight
hours. This is in response, to 0-1km storm relative helicity
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and low level shear values becoming more
oriented to the south southeast forecast this evening.

Severe potentials begin to weaken after 06z with much of the
precip exiting southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early
Thursday morning. The boundary itself is expected to remain just
west of the CWA tonight, which will keep temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s for lows Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

During the day Thursday, before the mid/upper level trof axis
departs to the east, a slight chance of showers and storms remains
for parts of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any
lingering precip development Thursday afternoon could tap into
shear/instability holding east of the surface boundary, and carry
a limited severe potential. To the west of any precip development,
continued southerly low level flow and more scattered cloud cover
will help afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s, while upper
70s/near 80 deg are forecast for northwest Arkansas.

Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is progged to move
through the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. This will push
the cold front back toward the CWA during the day Friday, and then
through the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Moisture and
instability continues to be common over the region ahead of the
front and will allow for another round of storm development,
especially Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with the front.
Again, severe potentials exist along and ahead of the front with
the greater potential over northeast Oklahoma as the front enters
this area late afternoon through evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off and exit during the morning
hours as the front clears the CWA to the southeast. In the wake of
the departing front and while the mid/upper level trof axis moves
over the region, northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier
airmass into the region is forecast. High temperatures in the 60s
are forecast Saturday, with lows Saturday night falling into the
upper 30s and 40s as cloud cover tries to clear. Temperatures
more closer to seasonal average are forecast Sunday into early
next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern
Plains. There are some indications of a wave moving over top the
ridge during the middle part of next week which could return the
potential for showers/storms. Uncertainty exists this far out and
for now will carry a slight chance of precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR cigs are being slow to lift across the region, but should lift
across NE OK sites shortly, lasting into mid afternoon across NW AR
sites. THe main impact through the period will be thunderstorm
chances this afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop early this afternoon and move into NE OK during
the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Better coverage is expected
across NE OK this afternoon with lesser chances across NW AR and SE
OK sites where only Prob30s are mentioned. Another wave of storms
will likely develop and move into Se OK and NW AR later this evening
which will provide the best chances for thunderstorm impacts for Nw
AR and Se OK sites. MVFR cigs will also likely fill back in early
tomorrow morning with some low probability for IFR cigs and fog to
develop across NE OK around that time as well.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  85  67  83 /  80  10  10  50
FSM   64  79  67  86 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   65  84  67  82 /  80  10  10  10
BVO   57  85  64  83 /  60  10   0  60
FYV   61  78  64  84 /  90  20  10  20
BYV   61  77  64  83 /  90  20  10  20
MKO   62  81  66  83 /  80  10  10  20
MIO   61  79  65  80 /  80  10   0  60
F10   62  84  67  83 /  80  10  10  20
HHW   64  83  65  82 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161845-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Western
		    Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and North of Interstate 40.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon with the greater potential along
and north of Interstate 40, and then spread over eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas into tonight. Storm development at the onset
is expected to be more discrete, and then develop into broken
lines and a complex during the evening into the overnight hours.
An unstable and strongly sheared atmosphere interacting with the
storms will increase severe probabilities through the evening
hours before beginning to weaken overnight tonight. Storms capable
of large to very large hail, damaging winds and also a tornado
threat exist into this evening, and then transition to a damaging
wind and quick spin-up tornado threat this evening into the early
overnight hours. In addition to severe potentials, a heavy rain
threat which could increase flood concerns develops this
afternoon through tonight across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Some early morning thunderstorms may linger over western Arkansas
Thursday morning before moving east. Isolated afternoon storms
could develop over portions of far eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas Thursday afternoon. If a storm develops, it would have
potential to become severe.

More thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern
Oklahoma Friday afternoon along a dryline, ahead of an upper
storm system and associated surface low pressure and cold front.
These storms will have a decent chance of becoming severe in an
unstable and strongly sheared environment, and would be capable of
producing higher-end severe weather. This includes very large
hail, locally damaging wind and tornadoes. Eventually, the cold
front will overtake the dryline and will force a band of storms
along it, with a damaging wind threat Friday night.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

ARZ029-OKZ076-151700-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SEBASTIAN AND
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1126 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northwest of Hartford, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Greenwood...                      Arkola...
Washburn...                       Huntington...
Crossroads...                     Central City...
Witcherville...                   Dayton...
Milltown...                       Midland...
Excelsior...                      Hartford...
Burnville...                      Jenny Lind...
Hackett...                        Mansfield...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9407 3514 9414 3511 9414 3496 9450
      3504 9458 3534 9423 3517 9403 3516 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 228DEG 44KT 3505 9445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

ARZ020-029-151730-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-
1150 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1150 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Burnville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Altus...                          Charleston...
Denning...                        Etna...
Alix...                           Greenwood...
Bloomer...                        Meg...
Milltown...                       Peter Pender...
Branch...                         Wiederkehr Village...
Burnville...                      Vesta...
Cecil...                          Ursula...
Ozark...                          Fort Chaffee...
Lavaca...                         Caulksville...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 33 and
42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9371 3537 9375 3542 9380 3531 9381
      3532 9392 3525 9392 3523 9397 3523 9402
      3520 9403 3513 9421 3525 9430 3563 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 234DEG 44KT 3523 9417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

OKZ054-059-151845-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Osage, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Walnut Creek State Park...
Osage...                          Cleveland...
Westport...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 9643 3623 9652 3654 9631 3635 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 224DEG 17KT 3629 9637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

OKZ054-055-151900-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
125 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
south of Barnsdall, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Barnsdall...                      Avant...
Ramona...                         Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9615 3647 9626 3669 9613 3651 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 224DEG 28KT 3644 9621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

OKZ054-151915-
Osage OK-
147 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 9 miles
east of Hominy, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Osage
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9600 3633 9626 3638 9631 3658 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 226DEG 29KT 3639 9623

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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