Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists today
   into Wednesday.

 - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues for much of
   the week. Most days will have at least a low chance of
   precipitation.

 - Another chance of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially
   severe, is expected during the day Friday to Saturday before
   cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow remains in place across the area.
Southerly winds will continue to gust to 25-35 mph today. High
temperatures will remain well above normal (in the 80s). As upper
level winds/lift from a positively tilted trough spread across
the dry line later today, thunderstorms are expected to develop
over central Oklahoma. These storms will then move northeast into
the area.

Initial storm formation will probably be in the late afternoon,
moving into the forecast area during the evening. Most CAMs quickly
show upscale growth into a line, or perhaps a few lines. This
implies that an initial severe hail dominant threat will shift to
wind dominant with time. This makes sense given the very large
instability and favorable dynamics for robust cold pool development.
A couple of tornados are also possible, particularly early on
before cold pools become mature. Of course, if storms remain
discrete for longer or into the evening when the LLJ ramps up,
the tornado threat could end up higher than it currently appears.
With continued forcing along the dry line, additional rounds of
showers and storms are possible overnight. These storms may also
be severe, but the threat will generally decline with time as well
as the further east you go. Locally heavy rain may also occur.
For these later rounds, the threat may start to sag south and
east, but generally still in the northwest half of the forecast
area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Warm and humid southerly flow will persist Wednesday, with the best
lift from an approaching trough moving overhead. CAM guidance is
fairly messy on Wednesday with multiple rounds of weaker storms
developing through the day across the forecast area. The CAMS
finally develop stronger storms in the afternoon and evening hours.
It storms are too widespread and frequent earlier during the day, it
could suppress severe weather in the evening. With that said, ample
moisture, shear, and instability are all present. The potential is
certainly there for severe weather even if failure modes also exist.
Most likely, hail and wind will be the dominant threats, but like
today, an couple of tornados remain possible as well.

Upper level forcing will move east on Thursday with a reprieve from
the stormy conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s with humid and
breezy conditions remaining in place. A strong cold front will push
through the area Friday night into Saturday. The airmass will be
quite moist and unstable. Hodographs look to be long and mostly
straight. Given that the shear vector will be roughly parallel to
the frontal forcing, storms should consolidate into lines, with
damaging wind being the primary hazard. But since this is a few
days away, this is just speculation for now. Much cooler and
drier conditions are expected Sunday into early next week behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast
period. One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
likely impact most sites, with the initial round affecting most
sites in the 02-08Z time range. Another round of showers and
storms is expected sometime later Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  78  61  86 /  80  70  70  10
FSM   67  80  64  85 /  60  50  90  20
MLC   66  77  64  85 /  70  70  70  10
BVO   64  79  56  85 /  80  70  70  10
FYV   63  76  61  82 /  60  70  90  20
BYV   65  76  61  82 /  60  60  90  30
MKO   64  76  62  84 /  70  70  80  10
MIO   64  76  60  82 /  80  70  80  10
F10   65  77  62  85 /  70  70  70  10
HHW   65  78  64  84 /  40  60  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-152230-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
524 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Nprthwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Warm and breezy weather will continue through the evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop to the west of
the area through early this evening, moving into northeast
Oklahoma this evening. Additional rounds of storms may affect
much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight. The
most likely storms to be severe will be this evening and the early
overnight hours for the northwest half of the area. All severe
hazards are possible, but wind is expected to dominate overall. If
storms remain discrete for longer than expected, then hail will
become more of a concern this evening. Isolated tornadoes are
possible but are not expected to be the main story. Areas of heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding may occur under stronger
storms or areas with repeated storms. The severe weather threat
will decline later overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional storm activity is expected Wednesday. Severe storms
may develop again, particularly in the evening hours. Like today,
wind is expected to be the main hazard, but localized large hail
and a couple of tornadoes may occur. Storm activity will diminish
Thursday, but return later Friday as a cold front passes through.
A line of heavy rain with severe wind potential is expected.
Cooler and drier weather will then develop for early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.