Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Limited severe weather threat near OK/KS border this morning,
   and later this afternoon and overnight south of I-40. Wind and
   hail are main threats along with at least localized heavy rain.

-  Advisory level heat and humidity forecast across far SE OK
   Thursday with heat index values near 105 in some spots.

 - The unsettled weather pattern continues at least during
   portions of the weekend into the early part of next week.
   Sunday night into Monday appears to offer the highest potential
   of heavy rainfall and severe weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Cold front continues pushing south across northeast OK and into
the far northwest corner of AR late this morning, extending
roughly along an OKC-FYV line at present. Ongoing scattered
convection continues to favor areas near the 925 mb front in a
corridor of around 2000 MUCAPE. Short range guidance continues to
show an overall downturn in coverage, though some renewal is also
indicated near the 850mb front in southern KS. Given the
environment these storms continue to pose a limited threat of hail
and wind, and with near 2 inch PWATS pooled near the front a
threat of locally heavy rain exists as well.

Later this afternoon as the front moves into a hot and unstable
environment along and south of I-40, some development is
possible. CAMs do not produce much, but anything that develops
will pose a threat of large hail and damaging downburst winds.
Some locations that remain south of the front may approach 105 HI
and an advisory remains in effect for far southeast OK.

Later this evening and overnight there remains a signal of
at least scattered elevated showers and storms north of the front.
These do not appear to offer much in the way of severe threat,
however thunderstorms that develop near a front/dry line
intersection over NW TX, which should grow into an east-moving
complex overnight that could affect parts of southeast OK into
early Friday morning. This area will likely be the focus of any
heavy rainfall and/or severe potential tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Aside from a potential ongoing storms through the morning, Friday
looks to be relatively dry. Storms chances should return quickly
however as the front lifts back north on Saturday though higher
probabilities will occur later in the weekend. A potential
complex moving across the Central Plains Saturday night could
impact northern parts of the local area, but the highest chance of
more widespread showers and storms still looks to be Sunday night
into Monday as a strong wave in the westerly flow forces a cold
front south. Heavy rainfall looks more likely during this period,
with areas north of I-40 looking more favored at this time. We may
also be impacted by a more organized complex of storms that would
offer an uptick in severe potential.

The active pattern continues for the foreseeable future with no
indications yet of strong ridging building into the Southern
Plains region through next week. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will continue pretty much daily as a result, but pinning down a
time and location of highest potential will be challenging. This
will generally keep daytime temps below normal outside of Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface frontal boundary will continue to sag southward through
the CWA this afternoon, while the 850-mb boundary remains near the
Oklahoma Kansas border. In response, showers/storms remain
forecast into this afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas. Will continue with VCSH/Prob30 groups
for timing across these TAF sites. Indications remain for
afternoon convection to weaken before additional storm chances
return overnight tonight into Friday morning. Again, will continue
with Prob30 groups for general timing, with the greater potential
along and south of Interstate 40. Precip chances begin to taper
off from north to south through the morning Friday. Within the
convection, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and MVFR conditions are
possible. Otherwise, scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are
forecast through the TAF period. Winds for the CWA vary from
easterly to northerly through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  70  86 /  60  20  30  30
FSM   71  85  71  87 /  60  50  40  50
MLC   71  85  72  88 /  60  50  50  40
BVO   63  84  67  85 /  40  10  30  30
FYV   65  84  68  85 /  60  20  30  50
BYV   64  83  66  84 /  40  10  20  50
MKO   68  83  70  85 /  60  40  30  40
MIO   63  85  67  85 /  40   0  30  40
F10   67  83  70  86 /  60  40  40  40
HHW   73  84  72  86 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-192215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
501 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
 ONSET...Ongoing...improving after sunset.

DISCUSSION...
A frontal boundary has drifted to near the I-40 corridor this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening along and ahead of the boundary, with a potential for a
strong to severe storm with large hail or damaging wind gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue north of the
front as well. Severe weather is mostly not expected north of the
boundary, but a storm or two may briefly become strong to
marginally severe. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as
storms redevelop over the same area through the evening.

Hot and humid conditions continue south of the front across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with heat index
values in excess of 100 degree. Conditions will improve after
sunset as temperatures drop off. The frontal boundary will also
slowly sag southward bringing cooler conditions in its wake.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
      ...Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next week,
with near daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Some severe
weather threat will exist most days, along with the threat for
locally heavy rainfall. Current indications are that Sunday
afternoon and evening may be the time period with the greatest
threat for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Delaware          36.77N 95.61W
06/18/2026  M65 MPH          Nowata             OK   Mesonet

            Nowata Mesonet.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-181945-
Western Osage OK-
214 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southwest of Ponca City, moving east-northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3669 9700 3669 9693 3672 9692
      3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3678 9675 3663 9675 3658 9700
      3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 257DEG 25KT 3666 9711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-182015-
Western Osage OK-
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Kaw Lake to near Burbank. Movement was east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9698 3669 9693 3672 9692 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3676 9682 3677 9682 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3678 9675 3684 9675 3687 9666
      3663 9654 3658 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 257DEG 22KT 3673 9692 3669 9676

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-254-182045-
Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-
309 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles west of Shidler to 8 miles east of
Burbank. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Shidler...
Burbank...                        Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9617 3661 9667 3677 9680 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3678 9675 3688 9675 3693 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 253DEG 28KT 3679 9674 3669 9657

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ055-254-182130-
Northeast Osage OK-Washington OK-
354 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Sunset Lake, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Bigheart...                       Osage Hills State Park...
Bartlesville Municipal Airport... Hulah...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...
Wah Sha She State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9600 3671 9592 3668 9636 3686 9642
      3688 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 257DEG 19KT 3679 9630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ARZ129-219-182300-
Southern Crawford AR-North and Central Sebastian AR-
533 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Van
Buren, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Barling...                        Lavaca...
Fort Smith Regional Airport...    Jenny Lind...
Central City...                   Concord...
Shibley...                        Mill Creek...
Rye Hill...                       Furry...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 9440 3530 9444 3532 9443 3538 9443
      3546 9444 3551 9428 3529 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 341DEG 16KT 3541 9436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH