Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Advisory level heat and humidity forecast across far SE OK
   Thursday with heat index values near 105 in some spots.

 - A relatively cooler and more unsettled weather pattern is
   expected Thursday into Friday, with a limited severe weather risk
   and some heavy rainfall potential that could lead to flash flooding.

 - The unsettled weather pattern continues at least during portions
   of the weekend into the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A strong shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes region is
forcing a frontal boundary south down the Plains today. The
synoptic front will eventually work its way into NE OK overnight
and then continue to progress south across the remainder of the
region through Thursday evening. The HRRR, RRFS and GFS develop
scattered showers and storms on the cool side of the front along
the elevated frontal zone during the day Thursday. There is some
uncertainty regarding location, with the HRRR and GFS developing
activity across NE OK and NW AR starting early Thursday morning,
and across southern KS, while the RRFS is not as aggressive with
the coverage over our area. These storms will pose a limited hail
threat. The 00Z HRRR has all storms across NE OK/NW AR dying off
after 15Z, and eventually shifts the southern KS elevated storm
band south into our area by evening. The RRFS shifts the band down
into our area faster. All the models agree that storm coverage
along the surface front during the afternoon will be pretty
limited, likely due to capping issues, though any storm that does
develop could become severe given plenty of instability, but
weaker shear.

Areas south of the front, especially far SE OK near the Red River,
have forecast afternoon heat indices near 105. A heat advisory has
been issued for Pushmataha and Choctaw counties. There will likely
be quite the north-south temp gradient across the forecast area
today. The latest guidance keeps temps in the 70s across portions of
NE OK where clouds and periodic rain hold temps back behind the
front.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The front should settle down into the Red River Valley by Thursday
evening, and all models suggest a pretty unsettled night across
southern OK that night. The potential for slow-moving or training
storms is higher during this time frame, increasing the threat for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. What happens as we go into Friday
is more uncertain. Some data has an MCS organizing Thursday night
and either tracking along or south of the Red River region into
Friday. The latest HRRR tracks this MCS east across a good portion
of our area Friday, while the GFS takes more it into TX. The
boundary lifts back north Saturday ahead of another shortwave trough
moving east over the central Rockies and into the Plains. While
shower and storm coverage does not look widespread, you can expect
some rain/storm chances. As the shortwave trough and associated
surface low progresses east over the central Plains Saturday night
into Sunday, a strong to severe MCS could progress southeast from
the High Plains and across the northern portions of the forecast
area (NE OK/NW AR). A cold front will settle down into the region
Sunday afternoon and night, with increasing shower and storm chances
that will likely linger into Monday. This looks like another window
where locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding will
be a higher threat.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period,
although there may be a brief period of MVFR ceilings this
morning, especially at KMLC and KFSM. A few showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible today, especially at the
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites, but the
better shower and storm chances will hold off until later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  68  85  71 /  60  40  20  40
FSM   92  72  86  72 /  20  50  40  40
MLC   93  72  87  73 /  20  70  50  60
BVO   74  64  84  68 /  70  30  10  50
FYV   83  66  85  69 /  50  50  20  30
BYV   79  64  83  66 /  70  40  10  30
MKO   84  69  84  71 /  30  50  30  40
MIO   77  64  85  68 /  70  30   0  40
F10   85  68  85  71 /  30  50  40  50
HHW   92  75  86  72 /   0  70  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-191030-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
523 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly Tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move slowly south across the area today into
this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur near
and north of the front today and tonight, with a limited severe
weather threat in the form of large hail and damaging winds.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially tonight
when storm coverage will likely be greatest.

Ahead of the front, heat index values will climb into the 100 to
105 degree range this afternoon across parts of southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
         Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next week,
with near daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Some severe
weather threat will exist most days, along with the threat for
locally heavy rainfall. Current indications are that Sunday
afternoon and evening may be the time period with the greatest
threat for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
713 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-181245-
Western Osage OK-
713 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 713 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Hardy, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Webb City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9639 3692 9640 3671 9662 3685 9676
      3686 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 306DEG 19KT 3699 9673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
745 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-254-181315-
Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-
745 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 745 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northeast of Foraker, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9617 3675 9637 3692 9673 3700 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 290DEG 20KT 3692 9652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
811 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

OKZ154-254-181345-
Western Osage OK-Northeast Osage OK-
811 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 811 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
northeast of Pearsonia, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bigheart...                       Sunset Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 9649 3698 9642 3692 9612 3673 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 294DEG 16KT 3688 9638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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