Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely tonight into Sunday
   morning. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are
   likely.

 - Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
   this afternoon.

 - Overall cooler and drier weather is expected through mid next
   week before warmer and wetter weather returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Earlier storm activity left a wake of cooler and stable air across
the area, but a surge of warm and humid air is quickly moving north
and scouring out the cooler air. In the immediate short term that
will result in hot and humid conditions developing, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for a portion of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.

One potentially interesting forecast wrinkle this afternoon will be
a subtle mid level circulation approaching from the west, evident on
visible satellite imagery. CAMs have off and on suggested a few
storms may pop near and north of I-40 this afternoon in response to
this feature, but confidence is low. With that said, if storms did
form, they could become severe given huge instability that is
expected to be in place. Hail would be the dominant threat.
Otherwise, warm advection showers near the OK-KS border also remain
possible into the afternoon.

By late evening and into the overnight hours a strong cold front
will move in from the northwest. Upper level support will be weak
with the trough well removed to the north, but there will be
enough upper level flow and diffluence for storms to develop. Very
large instability will help strong storms to develop near the
front, but line parallel shear will promote quick upscale growth.
Accordingly, a line of storms will form and then move through the
area. Severe weather will be a concern, with strong winds being
the main threat, with a spin up tornado or large hail being
secondary concerns. Very heavy rain is expected with elevated
atmospheric water content across the area. A widespread 1-3
inches is expected with locally higher amounts. Such heavy totals,
along with recent rains, will promote a flood risk along area
rivers and in any location that sees the higher rain rates. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas most likely to be
impacted. Thunderstorms will switch to just showers north of I-40
Sunday morning, with thunderstorms continuing south of the
interstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through Sunday, focusing
south of I-40. A relatively cool northerly breeze will keep
temperatures down Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s. Dew points will also briefly drop as
conditions dry out. A few spots may even reach the upper 50s
Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Temperatures will rebound mid week with a temporary resurgence of
upper level ridging, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. By this
point, a strong trough in the Great Lakes lakes region will help
to strengthen the flow aloft. At the same time, an ejecting
trough out of the southwest will increase low level moisture and
instability. The result will be a resurgence of rain and thunder
chances, continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will cool
slightly to near normal during this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Some MVFR cigs are lingering across NW AR terminals, but should
lift through the early afternoon hours. Through the short term,
gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will pick up this afternoon
across the area. A few isolated thunderstorms may also develop
across far E OK into NW AR this afternoon along an outflow
boundary left over from morning convection. An active last half of
the TAF period is expected as storms develop along a cold front
and track southeastward across all terminals through tomorrow
morning. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will be common during
thunderstorm activity. The cold front will bring a shift to
northerly winds Sunday morning along with MVFR cigs filling in
behind the precipitation through the morning hours.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  76  61  79 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   73  83  66  81 /  90  50  20  10
MLC   72  80  65  79 /  90  60  20  10
BVO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10  10   0
FYV   69  78  58  79 /  90  40   0   0
BYV   67  76  57  78 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   70  77  61  78 /  90  40  10   0
MIO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10   0   0
F10   69  77  61  78 /  90  40  20   0
HHW   74  83  68  79 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for OKZ055>058-061>063-067>069.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061-
     064-067-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-142230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THREATS INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast and East Central Oklahoma as well as Northwest
		   Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Additional This Evening into Tonight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to spread across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into this evening as a surface
boundary remained over the region. A severe threat with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat
will also continue this evening. Storms moving over the same
locations will create a heavy rain threat, which could lead to
localized flooding conditions.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and cold
front in Kansas and move southward over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas mid evening through tonight. Severe potentials
with all modes of severe weather will exist at the onset as these
storms move into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Through the late evening hours, severe potentials are forecast to
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat into the overnight
hours. After midnight, severe potentials begin to weaken the
farther southward the storms push. In addition to the severe
threat, a very heavy rain threat continues through tonight, which
will increase flash flooding concerns and also the threat for
rises in streams and rivers. A Flood Watch remains in effect into
Sunday for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
where rainfall amounts locally of 4 to 5 inches are possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
		    Heat Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will gradually taper off Sunday from north to
south. Severe potentials are not anticipated, though a locally
heavy rain threat continues into Sunday. Cooler and drier weather
will settle in through Monday. These conditions are short lived
as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads back in the middle of
next week. With the return of southerly winds, moisture will
stream back into the area, with additional storm chances
increasing for the latter half of next week. Limited severe
potentials as well as a heavy rain threat could develop late next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should be ready for a period of severe weather
operations through tonight. Those prone to river flooding should
closely follow the latest conditions and forecasts and be ready
for flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ057-061-062-132200-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
428 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...
NORTHEASTERN ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Chelsea, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        Big Cabin...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 272 and 277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9517 3645 9545 3655 9554 3660 9549
      3660 9543 3665 9543 3671 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 231DEG 19KT 3652 9543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ058-132245-
Ottawa OK-
518 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Commerce, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...
Commerce...                       Quapaw...
Treece...                         Picher...
Cardin...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 322 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 9462 3686 9491 3699 9504 3700 9503
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 234DEG 18KT 3697 9492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ057-058-132300-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
535 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CRAIG AND
SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
north of Vinita, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Afton...                          Bluejacket...
Narcissa...                       Pyramid Corners...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 288 and 301.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9514 3678 9521 3691 9498 3668 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 244DEG 19KT 3672 9512

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Hail             Big Cabin               36.54N 95.22W
06/13/2026  M2.00 Inch       Craig              OK   Public

            Info relayed by broadcast media of multiple
            golf ball to 2 inch diameter measured
            hailstones. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 ENE Wyandotte         36.82N 94.63W
06/13/2026                   Ottawa             OK   Emergency Mngr

            Campers flipped over at Indigo Sky Casino
            and Resort just west of the Missouri state
            line. Dime size hail also reported. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ058-132345-
Ottawa OK-
608 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms near
Miami tand also 3 miles west of Seneca. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...
Commerce...                       Quapaw...
Wyandotte...                      Treece...
Ottawa...                         Peoria...
Picher...                         Cardin...
Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 306 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9462 3678 9463 3684 9498 3700 9490
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 252DEG 19KT 3688 9487 3685 9466

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH