Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely tonight into Sunday
   morning. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are
   likely.

 - Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
   this afternoon.

 - Overall cooler and drier weather is expected through mid next
   week before warmer and wetter weather returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Earlier storm activity left a wake of cooler and stable air across
the area, but a surge of warm and humid air is quickly moving north
and scouring out the cooler air. In the immediate short term that
will result in hot and humid conditions developing, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for a portion of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.

One potentially interesting forecast wrinkle this afternoon will be
a subtle mid level circulation approaching from the west, evident on
visible satellite imagery. CAMs have off and on suggested a few
storms may pop near and north of I-40 this afternoon in response to
this feature, but confidence is low. With that said, if storms did
form, they could become severe given huge instability that is
expected to be in place. Hail would be the dominant threat.
Otherwise, warm advection showers near the OK-KS border also remain
possible into the afternoon.

By late evening and into the overnight hours a strong cold front
will move in from the northwest. Upper level support will be weak
with the trough well removed to the north, but there will be
enough upper level flow and diffluence for storms to develop. Very
large instability will help strong storms to develop near the
front, but line parallel shear will promote quick upscale growth.
Accordingly, a line of storms will form and then move through the
area. Severe weather will be a concern, with strong winds being
the main threat, with a spin up tornado or large hail being
secondary concerns. Very heavy rain is expected with elevated
atmospheric water content across the area. A widespread 1-3
inches is expected with locally higher amounts. Such heavy totals,
along with recent rains, will promote a flood risk along area
rivers and in any location that sees the higher rain rates. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas most likely to be
impacted. Thunderstorms will switch to just showers north of I-40
Sunday morning, with thunderstorms continuing south of the
interstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through Sunday, focusing
south of I-40. A relatively cool northerly breeze will keep
temperatures down Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s. Dew points will also briefly drop as
conditions dry out. A few spots may even reach the upper 50s
Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Temperatures will rebound mid week with a temporary resurgence of
upper level ridging, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. By this
point, a strong trough in the Great Lakes lakes region will help
to strengthen the flow aloft. At the same time, an ejecting
trough out of the southwest will increase low level moisture and
instability. The result will be a resurgence of rain and thunder
chances, continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will cool
slightly to near normal during this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Some MVFR cigs are lingering across NW AR terminals, but should
lift through the early afternoon hours. Through the short term,
gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will pick up this afternoon
across the area. A few isolated thunderstorms may also develop
across far E OK into NW AR this afternoon along an outflow
boundary left over from morning convection. An active last half of
the TAF period is expected as storms develop along a cold front
and track southeastward across all terminals through tomorrow
morning. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will be common during
thunderstorm activity. The cold front will bring a shift to
northerly winds Sunday morning along with MVFR cigs filling in
behind the precipitation through the morning hours.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  76  61  79 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   73  83  66  81 /  90  50  20  10
MLC   72  80  65  79 /  90  60  20  10
BVO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10  10   0
FYV   69  78  58  79 /  90  40   0   0
BYV   67  76  57  78 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   70  77  61  78 /  90  40  10   0
MIO   66  76  57  79 / 100  10   0   0
F10   69  77  61  78 /  90  40  20   0
HHW   74  83  68  79 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for OKZ055>058-061>063-067>069.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061-
     064-067-154-254-354.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
151 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-141900-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
151 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK and Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast OK and Northwest AR.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...Northeast OK and Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
In the short term, dangerous heat will be the story with heat
indices of 100-106F for much of the area this afternoon. A couple
of storms may develop north of I-40 this afternoon. Even though
they will be isolated, severe weather may occur, with large hail
as the primary threat. Overnight tonight a cold front will bring a
line of storms. For these storms damaging wind and a few isolated
tornadoes are the main expected severe hazards. Additionally, very
heavy rain will likely result in areas of flash and river
flooding, particularly for areas that have seen significant rain
this week. Storms will continue through dawn Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storm activity will gradually wind down Sunday from north to
south. Cooler and drier weather will settle in through Monday.
Temperatures will rise into mid week, becoming hot. Breezy
southerly winds may help keep the apparent temperature slightly
lower but it will still be uncomfortable for many. With the
southerly flow, moisture will stream back into the area, with
storm chances increasing through the mid to late week period.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
322 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ002-132045-
Carroll AR-
322 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 3 miles east of Berryville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Eureka Springs...
Green Forest...                   Carrollton...
Urbanette...                      Grandview...
Rule...                           Blue Eye...
Coin...                           Pleasant Ridge...
Denver...                         Oak Hill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 9375 3650 9375 3650 9330 3626 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 268DEG 37KT 3637 9350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

ARZ002-132100-
Carroll AR-
344 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Carrollton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Green Forest...                   Carrollton...
Coin...                           Connor...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9346 3640 9342 3639 9330 3620 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 280DEG 35KT 3631 9335

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ057-132145-
Craig OK-
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CRAIG COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
north of Vinita, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 287 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9519 3673 9524 3682 9500 3665 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 251DEG 13KT 3670 9513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ058-132200-
Ottawa OK-
423 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Wyandotte, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wyandotte...                      Peoria...
Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 322 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3671 9462 3667 9472 3678 9484 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 228DEG 21KT 3677 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ057-061-062-132200-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
428 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...
NORTHEASTERN ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Chelsea, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        Big Cabin...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 272 and 277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9517 3645 9545 3655 9554 3660 9549
      3660 9543 3665 9543 3671 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 231DEG 19KT 3652 9543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH