Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight.
   Heavy rain... strong downburst winds and hail will accompany the
   strongest storms.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is
   expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a
   larger area. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms.
   After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

-  Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance
   of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon as
a front moves southeast into the area. Deep-layer shear is expected to
increase with time into the evening and support some potential for severe
storms. Initial storm will have wind and hail potential. After a few hours
the activity will tend to grow upscale into a line and continue southeast
with occasional downbursts becoming the primary threat. The severe potential
should diminish after late evening, but thunderstorms should continue across
southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Quick heavy rains could lead
to a local flash flood risk.

FYI... Tulsa touched the record high low temp this morning.  Fort Smith and
Fayetteville stayed above their records. But the final low for the day is
expected to be recorded this evening at Tulsa and Fayetteville with the rain
and storms. Timing for Fort Smith may be close.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Shower and storm activity should be ongoing in southeast Oklahoma on Friday
morning, but then diminish with time. The next shot at storms develops
Friday night across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as one or
more nocturnal storm complexes move through region. The front that crosses
our area tonight and Friday will redevelop north on Saturday and be the focus
for widespread thunderstorm development late Saturday and Saturday evening
in southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma. These storms will pose an
excessive rain threat and some severe storm potential. Measurable rain will
fall across most / all of our area from Saturday night into Sunday, with local
amounts of 3 to 5 inches.  A cluster analysis of model data suggests the max
amounts may center around southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast
Oklahoma. An isolated amount near 7 inches is not out of the question given
the current data.

Temps will be down Friday, but rebound Saturday in most areas on Saturday.
While conditions may stay below advisory levels, it will be hot and muggy
for some.

The chance of rain may not completely end in our area until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Convection will continue to spread east and southeast tonight as a
frontal boundary sags southeast through the CWA. Within the
convection, gusty winds, heavy rain and brief MVFR conditions
could develop. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of
greater potential for each TAF site. Behind the convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast while ceilings become
scattered/broken mid and high clouds into Friday morning. There
is potential in southeast Oklahoma of MVFR ceilings and additional
showers holding into Friday morning as the boundary slows it
momentum before retreating northward during the day. As the
boundary lifts back over the CWA, again scattered mid and high
clouds are forecast Friday afternoon. Winds through the period
start out southerly, transition to northerly and then easterly
tonight behind the boundary, and finally east to southeast once
the front lifts back through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  74  91 /  60  10  10  40
FSM   74  88  75  92 /  90  40  10  30
MLC   73  88  76  91 /  90  50  10  10
BVO   63  84  71  91 /  10  10  30  50
FYV   68  86  72  88 /  90  20  30  50
BYV   66  83  69  86 / 100  10  40  60
MKO   69  85  73  89 /  80  30  10  30
MIO   63  84  70  89 /  40   0  40  70
F10   68  85  73  90 /  80  40  10  20
HHW   75  87  75  91 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-122200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
454 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop along a southeastward
moving frontal boundary over northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this evening, and then into southeast Oklahoma tonight.
Increasing severe potentials into this evening will support the
threat for large hail and damaging winds. Overnight, storms are
expected to be more linear with the threat transitioning to mainly
locally damaging wind gusts. Overall severe potentials, weaken
overnight, though thunderstorm chances continue across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas into early Friday morning. In
addition to the severe threat, quick heavy rains could lead to a
local flash flood risk into tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
		   Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and storm activity should be ongoing in southeast Oklahoma
Friday morning, and then diminish during the day. Additional storms
are forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as one or more nocturnal
storm complexes move through the region. The front that crosses
our area tonight and Friday will redevelop north Saturday and be
the focus for widespread thunderstorm development late Saturday
afternoon and evening in southern Kansas to northern Oklahoma.
These storms will pose an excessive rain threat and some severe
storm potential. Measurable rain will fall across most if not all
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday night into
Sunday while a cold front moves into the region. Local rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches, though an isolated amount near 7 inches
is not out of the question given the current data.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should continue to closely follow the forecast
into the weekend. Severe weather operations will be necessary at
times. The main concern appears to be the potential for excessive
rain. Flash flooding concerns will increase over the next several
days. The excessive rains, depending on exactly where they fall,
could easily aggravate creek and river flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
706 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

OKZ055-056-061-120030-
Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
706 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
west of Watova, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Talala...
Watova...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 9588 3672 9583 3672 9557 3645 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 283DEG 15KT 3663 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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