Flood Watch 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days.
   While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is
   expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a
   larger area.

-  After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near
   creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

-  Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance
   of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cluster of thunderstorms continues ahead of a weak frontal
boundary moving across northeast OK. Environment continues to
support a low-end threat of downburst winds tonight, and most
data suggests a potential uptick in coverage of storms later
tonight favored along and south of I-40 . Flooding potential also
will exist with PWAT values 1.5-1.8 inches analyzed through the
local area.

Rain and storm coverage is expected to wane through the early part
of Friday as the front basically washes out. Temperatures should
be slightly cooler but it will remain humid.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Complex of storms potentially makes a run at northeast OK and
northwest AR late Friday night, but the Saturday night into Sunday
time frame continues to be indicated as the period with highest
potential for more widespread heavy rainfall. During this time a
more significant cold front is forecast to push through the
Central Plains toward the local area, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing across southern KS into northern OK,
with both a threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall.
Latest suite of guidance continues to point toward northeast OK
as the more favored area for heavy rain, locally several inches
possible. A flood watch may ultimately be needed as this region
has seen recent heavy rainfall with some ongoing river flooding as
well. After a hot an humid day Saturday, temperatures will be
notably cooler to start next week.

Overall rain and storm chances will decrease during the early part
of next week with a period of below normal temperatures before
more typical early summer conditions return. Storm chances may
increase again later next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall, a very low-confidence and somewhat complicated aviation
forecast over the next 24 hours. A complex of storms continues to
shift south and east of the TAF sites at this hour. Left in VCTS
at KMLC through 13Z as thunderstorm exit the terminal space. Will
continue to monitor. Patchy low-level clouds may develop over the
next couple of hours, mainly north of I-40, though confidence is
low on duration and coverage. Latest hi-res guidance shows
additional storms developing along a warm front as it lifts
northward this afternoon and evening. At this time, it appears
only NE OK terminals will have the highest potential for TSRA for
a few hours late this afternoon or early this evening. Another
complex of storms is forecast to develop over the High Plains
region early- mid evening will push ESE through the night. Still
lots of uncertainty if this complex will survive as it moves into
NE OK. Included PROB30 groups at KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS to show this
possibility. Low-level clouds may develop again overnight tonight
and into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to stay light and
variable this morning, then turning more southerly or
southeasterly and staying fairly light this afternoon behind the
passing warm front.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  75  92  69 /  10  10  30 100
FSM   88  75  92  74 /  40  10  20  90
MLC   88  76  91  74 /  40  10   0  90
BVO   85  72  92  66 /   0  30  60 100
FYV   86  72  88  69 /  10  20  40  90
BYV   84  69  87  67 /  10  30  60 100
MKO   85  73  89  70 /  20  10  10 100
MIO   85  70  89  66 /   0  40  60 100
F10   86  73  90  69 /  30  10  10  90
HHW   87  75  91  75 /  60  10  10  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-131000-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
454 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Far Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along and south
of Interstate 40. Organized severe weather is not expected through
the morning, although localized marginally severe wind gusts may
occur with this activity. Locally heavy rain potential will
continue as well, which may lead to isolated flash flooding. The
morning thunderstorms are expected to shift south and east of the
area by late morning.

This evening and into the overnight, multiple rounds of additional
thunderstorms are possible, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. These could produce locally damaging winds and
large hail, as well as localized flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm...High Wind...Dangerous Heat...and
           Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind...and Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing at daybreak on Saturday, with any
remaining potential shifting east of the area mid to late morning.
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms that form ahead of a cold front
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening are expected to move
through northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. These
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe weather, with large hail
and locally damaging winds the main concerns. The threat for heavy
rain and flash flooding is also likely to increase Saturday night.
The heavy rains may also lead to additional mainstem river
flooding. The cold front will move southward Saturday night and
into Sunday, with the heavy rain threat shifting into southeast
Oklahoma for Sunday and south of the area by Monday.

Low thunderstorm chances will exist for most days next week, with
the heat and humidity making a return for the middle to latter
part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

OKZ049-053-121100-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
525 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PUSHMATAHA AND NORTHEASTERN
CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 524 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Dunbar to 3 miles southwest of
Cloudy to 19 miles northwest of Broken Bow. Movement was southwest at
20 to 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rattan...                         Stanley...
Snow...                           Nashoba...
Oleta...                          Cloudy...
Kosoma...                         Corinne...
Apple...                          Dela...
Sobol...                          Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 9566 3458 9545 3450 9519 3448 9505
      3425 9505 3424 9515 3409 9516 3409 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1024Z 024DEG 18KT 3440 9555 3428 9534 3423 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

OKZ049-053-121145-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
558 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND
NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...

At 558 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Antlers to 7 miles northeast of Fort Towson.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Fort Towson...                    Sawyer...
Rattan...                         Snow...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Kellond...
Kent...                           Messer...
Moyers...                         Raymond Gary State Park...
Kosoma...                         Oleta...
Cloudy...                         Fallon...
Sobol...                          Eubanks...
Corinne...                        Swink...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 9565 3448 9572 3433 9505 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3394 9516 3395 9519 3396 9523
      3395 9523 3394 9525 3391 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 323DEG 21KT 3423 9559 3410 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

OKZ049-053-121215-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM CDT...

At 643 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles north of Boswell to 5 miles northwest of
Arthur City to 2 miles southeast of Raymond Gary State Park. Movement
was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Fort Towson...                    Sawyer...
Rattan...                         Soper...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Kellond...
Kent...                           Goodland...
Messer...                         Raymond Gary State Park...
Oleta...                          Grant...
Ord...                            Fallon...
Sobol...                          Frogville...
Darwin...                         Unger...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9560 3389 9569
      3390 9575 3387 9577 3387 9584 3416 9587
      3416 9578 3430 9578 3416 9515 3394 9516
      3396 9523 3389 9526 3390 9526 3391 9527
      3387 9529 3389 9533 3387 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 323DEG 10KT 3417 9586 3391 9558 3397 9523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH