Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

 - Scattered strong to severe storms from mid afternoon through
   evening.

 - Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Temps near mid May normals forecast next week w/ low rain
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Cold front currently passing far NW OK and will continue eastward
becoming a focus for thunderstorm development by mid afternoon.
Guidance is in good agreement on increasing storm coverage through
early evening as storms spread east and southeastward across the
region. Forecast profiles maintain a drier subcloud layer as low
level moisture return is meager with strong deep layer shear that
remains near unidirectional through the evening. This will favor
supercells with any sustained updrafts with efficient storm splits
likely leading to multiple cell interactions with time. The
initial storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds
with a transition to broken line segments and damaging winds
becoming the primary hazard. The eastward extent of the
instability axis will be confined within the forecast area with
the high value corridor more favored across E OK and points south
and westward. This should result in a lesser severe risk with
eastward extent while also allowing a quick stabilization trend
after sunset which keeps the severe weather confined to the
evening hours. The composite cold front and outflow boundary will
likely push through far SE OK by sunrise Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The aforementioned boundary will be a focus for storm development
and expansion late Saturday through Saturday night. Initial
storms are likely to develop well west of the region Saturday
afternoon and spread eastward into the forecast area Saturday
night. Severe weather potential will be lower with this eastward
progression with a limited risk hail risk Saturday night. A
stronger wave approaches and passes through the region Sunday
through Sunday night driving a cold front south of the area by
Monday. Increased forcing in advance of the wave and along the
advancing front is likely to sustain the early day convection with
the storms spreading southward through Sunday.

Dry and mild day Monday as sfc high pressure settles over the
region. Northwesterly flow aloft continues through early next week
with the next cold front passing Tuesday or Tuesday night with a
chance of shower and storms. The remainder of the work week is
forecast to maintain temperatures near seasonal normals and mostly
dry conditions. The pattern aloft may trend toward a more
unsettled state by next weekend into next week and more typical
of mid May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon for all sites.
By 21z, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along an
advancing frontal boundary in northeast Oklahoma. These storms will
move south and east through the evening hours, with impacts possible
at all sites. Storms may produce hail, strong and erratic winds,
heavy rainfall, and reduced vsbys as a result. By 06z, storms are
likely to have exited the local area, with clearing skies overnight.
Short term guidance continues to suggest fog potential overnight
into Saturday morning, particularly aligned with the rainfall
footprint in NE OK and NW AR. Confidence was high enough to include
vsby reduction in the KBVO TAF with this forecast issuance, but
additional sites may need to be included in future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  84  62  71 /  40   0  80  60
FSM   58  86  61  77 /  40   0  50  80
MLC   58  86  64  75 /  60   0  70  90
BVO   49  84  57  70 /  20   0  70  50
FYV   53  84  59  73 /  60   0  50  70
BYV   54  82  58  70 /  60   0  40  70
MKO   55  83  61  72 /  70   0  70  80
MIO   52  81  58  68 /  50   0  50  50
F10   55  83  61  72 /  70   0  80  90
HHW   59  83  64  79 /  30   0  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-092200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
456 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Early Evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Through Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon and will continue to spread east and southward through
the evening. Initial storms will be capable of very large hail
and locally damaging winds. A very low but nonzero potential for a
tornado or two will also exist in parts of northeast Oklahoma
through early evening. As storms become more numerous by early
evening, the primary hazard will gradually transition to mainly
damaging winds. The severe weather threat will begin to diminish
by mid evening with storms likely dissipating around midnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into eastern
Oklahoma Saturday night and continue into the day Sunday. These storms
will have a limited severe weather threat and potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

A weak frontal boundary may bring a few showers and thunderstorms
to parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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