Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

 - Scattered strong to severe storms from mid afternoon through
   evening.

 - Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Temps near mid May normals forecast next week w/ low rain
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Cold front currently passing far NW OK and will continue eastward
becoming a focus for thunderstorm development by mid afternoon.
Guidance is in good agreement on increasing storm coverage through
early evening as storms spread east and southeastward across the
region. Forecast profiles maintain a drier subcloud layer as low
level moisture return is meager with strong deep layer shear that
remains near unidirectional through the evening. This will favor
supercells with any sustained updrafts with efficient storm splits
likely leading to multiple cell interactions with time. The
initial storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds
with a transition to broken line segments and damaging winds
becoming the primary hazard. The eastward extent of the
instability axis will be confined within the forecast area with
the high value corridor more favored across E OK and points south
and westward. This should result in a lesser severe risk with
eastward extent while also allowing a quick stabilization trend
after sunset which keeps the severe weather confined to the
evening hours. The composite cold front and outflow boundary will
likely push through far SE OK by sunrise Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The aforementioned boundary will be a focus for storm development
and expansion late Saturday through Saturday night. Initial
storms are likely to develop well west of the region Saturday
afternoon and spread eastward into the forecast area Saturday
night. Severe weather potential will be lower with this eastward
progression with a limited risk hail risk Saturday night. A
stronger wave approaches and passes through the region Sunday
through Sunday night driving a cold front south of the area by
Monday. Increased forcing in advance of the wave and along the
advancing front is likely to sustain the early day convection with
the storms spreading southward through Sunday.

Dry and mild day Monday as sfc high pressure settles over the
region. Northwesterly flow aloft continues through early next week
with the next cold front passing Tuesday or Tuesday night with a
chance of shower and storms. The remainder of the work week is
forecast to maintain temperatures near seasonal normals and mostly
dry conditions. The pattern aloft may trend toward a more
unsettled state by next weekend into next week and more typical
of mid May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon for all sites.
By 21z, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along an
advancing frontal boundary in northeast Oklahoma. These storms will
move south and east through the evening hours, with impacts possible
at all sites. Storms may produce hail, strong and erratic winds,
heavy rainfall, and reduced vsbys as a result. By 06z, storms are
likely to have exited the local area, with clearing skies overnight.
Short term guidance continues to suggest fog potential overnight
into Saturday morning, particularly aligned with the rainfall
footprint in NE OK and NW AR. Confidence was high enough to include
vsby reduction in the KBVO TAF with this forecast issuance, but
additional sites may need to be included in future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  84  62  71 /  40   0  80  60
FSM   58  86  61  77 /  40   0  50  80
MLC   58  86  64  75 /  60   0  70  90
BVO   49  84  57  70 /  20   0  70  50
FYV   53  84  59  73 /  60   0  50  70
BYV   54  82  58  70 /  60   0  40  70
MKO   55  83  61  72 /  70   0  70  80
MIO   52  81  58  68 /  50   0  50  50
F10   55  83  61  72 /  70   0  80  90
HHW   59  83  64  79 /  30   0  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-091900-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
149 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon and spread east and southward through the evening.
Initial storms will be capable of large hail and locally damaging
winds. As storms become more numerous by early evening the
primary hazard will gradually transition to mainly damaging
winds. The severe weather threat will begin to diminish by
mid evening with storms likely dissipating around midnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into eastern
Oklahoma Saturday night and continue into the day Sunday. These storms
will have a limited severe weather threat and potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

A weak frontal boundary may bring a few showers and thunderstorms
to parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
232 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

OKZ154-082015-
Western Osage OK-
232 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles northeast of Kaw Lake to 3 miles
northeast of Kaw City. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9641 3676 9645 3676 9682 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3697 9675
      3700 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 249DEG 26KT 3686 9679 3679 9680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH