Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

 - Another round of thunderstorms and severe weather is expected
   this afternoon.

 - A cold front will usher in cooler and drier air tonight,
   marking the beginning of an extended break from severe weather
   that is expected to last into the first part of May.

 - A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during
   the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances across the
   region, mainly near and south of Interstate 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon as an
upper wave passes overhead. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will
continue to be the primary hazards associated with storms north of a
warm front in southeast Oklahoma and NW AR. Along and south of the
warm front, all severe hazards will be possible. Over time, the
front will be forced back to the south with a decreasing
thunderstorm and severe threat for our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Precip ends entirely by tonight with high pressure filling into the
region for Wednesday. This provides a break in the active weather
pattern with drier and cooler conditions. Rain chances increase
again late in the day Thursday as moist SW flow overruns the
region ahead of an approaching western trough. This system
eventually ejects east Friday into Friday evening with continued
precipitation chances, mainly near and south of Interstate 40.
Instability will be lacking with this feature and little in the
way of thunder is expected with no severe threat. This weekend
looks quiet weather-wise with near average temperatures returning
by Sunday. Eastern troughing sets up for early next week with a
weak disturbance providing low rain and thunder chances Monday
night into Tuesday. For now, the severe weather potential through
the extended period looks to remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR and periodic IFR cigs will continue to prevail through this
afternoon. Ceilings should improve from west to east late this
afternoon and into this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue to overspread eastern OK and northwest AR
early this afternoon. Additional storms are expected to to develop
later this afternoon near a cold front that will pushing through
the area. Storms that are able to move over any TAF site will be
capable of producing erratic wind gusts, large hail, and heavy
rainfall, with IFR and LIFR cigs/vsbys. Storms will gradually
shift south and east with the cold front this evening. Aviation
conditions and ceilings should improve late tonight and overnight
tonight. However, conditions may be slower to improve at the
northwest AR TAF sites.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  69  47  70 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   55  73  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   53  70  52  70 /  20  10  10  20
BVO   44  69  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   50  69  44  69 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   51  68  44  68 /  50   0   0   0
MKO   51  70  49  70 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   47  66  43  68 /  20   0   0   0
F10   50  69  48  69 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   56  70  56  69 /  50  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-291745-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Storms early this
afternoon will continue to pose a threat of large hail across the
area. Another round of storms is expected later this afternoon,
primarily south of a frontal boundary across southeast Oklahoma
into west central Arkansas. All severe hazards will be possible
with this activity, with cells merging into clusters as they push
southeast across the area through the late afternoon and early
evening. Thunderstorms and associated hazards are expected to push
out of the local region by mid evening with more settled
conditions arriving for the rest of the night.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Much more settled conditions will prevail Wednesday through much
of the next week. Showers will be possible late Thursday and
Friday, mainly near and south of Interstate 40, but little
significant impact is expected from this system at this time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     Hail             3 SE Bartlesville       36.72N 95.94W
04/28/2026  E1.00 Inch       Washington         OK   Public

&&

JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Hail             1 E Dewey               36.80N 95.92W
04/28/2026  E1.25 Inch       Washington         OK   Public

&&

JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     Hail             2 SE Bartlesville       36.72N 95.96W
04/28/2026  E1.25 Inch       Washington         OK   Public

&&

JDS