Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
848 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 848 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

 - Another round of thunderstorms and severe weather is expected
Tuesday.

 - A cold front will usher in cooler and drier air Tuesday night,
marking the beginning of an extended break from severe weather that
is expected to last into the first part of May.

 - A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during the
latter part of the week, increasing rain chances across the region.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Warm advection showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase
in coverage by late morning as an upper wave influences the
region. Mesoanalysis currently indicates upwards of 1000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE in place across the FA, particularly across the
south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear values will
support severe weather for much of the area. A warm front remains
draped across S OK and into W-Central AR this morning and will
attempt to lift north today. Its evolution will likely be
influenced by storm coverage this morning, and greater storm
coverage north of the boundary could help to limit the northward
advance. Left undisturbed, the front may lift to near the I-40
corridor in eastern Oklahoma and into parts of NW AR by this
afternoon. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary hazards
for storms that occur north of the front. Along and south of the
front, greater potential exists for sfc-based storms and all
severe hazards will be possible, including a few tornadoes. Heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be a concern
today, especially across SE OK. A complex of storms was observed
moving generally along the boundary from west to east across S
Oklahoma/ N Texas this morning. Expect this to continue east,
potentially impacting portions of SE OK by late morning.

Overall, severe weather will be possible through the afternoon
and into the evening. Depending on how widespread storms become
this morning, the severe risk may lean more heavily towards the
late morning-afternoon period, with less coverage possible this
evening. Trends will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A cold front is currently advancing south across northwest Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma. A few storms have developed along and ahead
of it, mainly to the east of the forecast area. With no new
convective attempts evident on IR imagery, the severe thunderstorm
watch was cancelled early. The front is expected to settle down into
the lower Ark River Valley and SE OK by Tuesday morning.

Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday morning as warm advection
increases ahead of the approaching wave currently near Las Vegas.
Storm coverage and severe potential will increase through the day.
The front will lift north into SE OK and perhaps west-central AR as
a weak frontal wave of low pressure slides along it during the day
in response to the passing wave. Storms that get going near and
south of the boundary will have the best chance of producing higher-
end severe weather. Low level shear is sufficient for a supercell
tornado threat, especially near the boundary, and this threat could
start earlier in the day than usual. Otherwise, large hail and
locally damaging wind will be the primary severe threats. CAMs
suggest that the storms will move east and south of the region by
early evening, in tandem with the now southward progression of the
cold front in the wake of the passing frontal wave.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, starting a period of below average temperatures that will
last for the remainder of the week. Rain chances will increase
toward the latter part of the week as an upper level system tracks
east across Texas. With the warm and unstable air shoved well to the
south, storm chances will be minimal at best. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible down near the Red River before the system moves
away by the start of the weekend. A weak system will bring low rain
chances again by the start of the next work week. With broad upper
troughing over the eastern CONUS and surface ridging predominant
over the south-central CONUS, we are looking at an extended period
without severe weather that will last into much of the first week of
May.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Cigs will continue to deteriorate through the morning hours, with
MVFR conditions overspreading all sites by late morning.
Increasing showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected as
well from mid to late morning across the region. Multiple rounds
of storms will be possible into the afternoon, especially across
SE OK into WC AR though there is still some uncertainty in
coverage of storms during the afternoon, thus have opted for
PROB30s during the afternoon for this reason. Any storms should
shift southeast into the evening with skies clearing somewhat
across E OK sites. MVFR to possibly some IFR cigs are expected to
hold across AR sites through the rest of the TAF period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  48  69  48 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   79  56  74  52 /  90  50  10  10
MLC   79  53  71  52 /  90  30  10  10
BVO   63  43  69  43 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   74  50  70  45 /  90  50  10   0
BYV   73  51  68  45 /  90  60  10   0
MKO   73  50  69  49 /  90  30   0   0
MIO   66  46  66  43 /  70  20   0   0
F10   72  49  69  49 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   81  56  71  57 /  80  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
434 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-290945-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
434 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Midday.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will increase through the morning hours and
into the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, then moving into
western Arkansas. Initial activity will pose a threat of large
hail across the area. Another round of storms is expected through
the afternoon, primarily south of a frontal boundary across
southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. All severe hazards
will be possible with this activity, with cells merging into
clusters as they push southeast across the area through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms and associated hazards are expected to
push out of the local region by mid morning with more settled
conditions arriving for the rest of the period.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Following the passage of a cold front on Tuesday, much more
settled conditions will prevail through much of the next week.
Some showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday and Friday, but little impact is expected from this
system at this time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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